I don't see how anyone thinks Tony has a shot at beating Williams. Tony isn't a really big power puncher, he's just a good puncher. Paul Williams is taller, faster, with longer reach, has a decent chin, and probably throws the most punches per round at 147. Williams IMO is lacking a bit of defense, but he's just one or two quality wins away from reaching the elite level. Tony is a big slow guy with no defense, no footwork, nothing. Tony throws a lot of punches but he's wide open after every punch he throws. He's used to being the guy bigger guy but he'll be in for a rude awakening against Williams. Tony is clearly ducking this guy. But in Tony's defense, I think this has more to do with Arum wanting to secure a big time fight with Cotto and Tony wanting to finally get a good sized paycheck than it does with Tony actually being scared of Williams.