It will be closer that the Lacy fight, but Manfredo can only win if Joe doesn't take him seriously or if Joe breaks a hand. Unlike Lacy, Manfredo has a little skill and a little defense. He knows how to roll with punches and he knows how to counter. Also, Peter has more power at 168 than he's had at any other weight. Calzaghe should still win pretty easily, but I don't think it will be a Lacy-level asswhipping.