Well if you think Serra just got lucky by landing a hard punch then I think you have to figure Matt gets the take down and plays it pretty conservative w/ GNP and wins a boring fight. If you think Serra's standup has improved that much then maybe he can keep the fight standing up and KO matt. I personally don't think that serra is has GSP's atheletic ability. I felt more than anything it GSP's great athleticism that allowed him to hit and not be hit as well as consistantly stuff Hughes takedowns. Serra is BJJ stud so he is dangerous on the ground, but I don't think he will be able to keep the fight standing and eventually lose a rather uneventful UD.