No, everyone's not picking Oscar ... on the contrary, a Floyd win is the more natural expectation.

There are some who do think Oscar can and will win, and they are in the position of having to defend and explain themselves more fully, so there may be more verbage regarding that possibility.

I agree that Oscar's win against Sturm was suspect ... Oscar was pudgy and seemed unprepared. Reminds one of Mayweather-Castillo ONE where I thought Floyd lost (though he won convincingly in rematch; Oscar may have done same against Felix).

I don't credit Oscar's loss to Hopkins as defining Oscar at all. It was not a natural fight for him to take. He was pushing the envelope big-time in terms of size and power. He fought well until the KO. I know some think he took a dive but I don't respect that opinion in the least.

So - instead of just piling numbers up, each fight needs to be looked at on a case-by-case and weighted in terms of what it can tell us about Oscar. He proved he was looking past Sturm, and like Lennox came in lumbering and doughy against Rachman in S. Africa, he had a bad fight. What do fights like these tell us? That the fighter made a mistake in judgment and preparation. They don't necessarily reveal the true capabilities of the fighter, but rather mask them.

Tonight will tell the tale. If Oscar can win, it will be because he has more natural power at this weight, and can take Floyd's shots and still lay his own shots on Floyd. He needs to get Floyd into trouble, stun him and follow up with accurate power - not wild flurries. Oscar needs to use his energy/power economically but aggressively.

There are certainly ways to see Oscar winning this fight, but it isn't an obvious win by any means. He really has to earn. I'm hoping he can and will.

Equally exciting would be an Oscar who does just that, but Floyd still out-boxes him with aggressive speed and power, and earns a victory by more than poke and float.

We gonna find out tonight. I'm expecting Saddo's to be absolutely unavailable for the RBR. Bummer!