Outstanding observation by William Dettloff (Ring Magazine). I see the same outcome

It is accepted as truth that Taylor has been unraveling at a steady clip since his consecutive wins over Bernard Hopkins, the first of which initiated this difficult and unhappy tenure as the world’s top 160-pound fighter. Indeed, his stock has dropped with every appearance since, despite the existence of an unpopular truth: He has yet to lose in the ring. But even his most loyal supporters concede that the “easier” the opponent is supposed to be—and make no mistake, Kassim Ouma and Cory Spinks were intended to be easy fights—the worse Taylor has looked.

Kelly Pavlik, by contrast, looked superb in beating down and stopping Edison Miranda last time out, and looked about as good mugging the tough but coarse Jose Luis Zertuche before that. So far as any of us can tell, he’s never looked as bad against anyone as Taylor did stumbling after Spinks or while getting backed up by the smaller, apparently under-powered Ouma. It is for this reason that although the wise guys see this as a pick-’em fight, many fans see Pavlik as a clear favorite.

It’s easy to see why people are picking Pavlik: Taylor has under-performed in his most recent fights, against 154-pounders no less, while Pavlik has emerged as a big, strong, power-hitting middleweight. But it’s not that simple. Ouma is an easy fight for no one (ask Verno Phillips) and Taylor whipped him clearly, if unspectacularly. And Spinks will make a lot more guys look awful before he’s done. It’s what he does. Zertuche and Miranda, on the other hand, were sitting ducks for Pavlik’s ballsy, heavy-handed attack. Tough as they were, he couldn’t have asked for more willing targets.

The best thing to do for a fighter who’s having an identity crisis is to put him in with a well-regarded opponent whom he can hit hard and hit often. That tends to clean things up nicely. Taylor will hit Pavlik hard and he will hit him often. He’ll take some in return too, and that’s all right. At the end he’ll know, either way, who he is, and we will too. My pick: Taylor by decision or late stoppage.