If you don't mind me jumping in here, I like to think Pavlik can come out the victor, but as i stated in an earlier post alot of it has to do with how Wright approaches this fight. He could outbox Pavlik and use the ring all night, as we know Pav will come forward all the time. It's not that Pavlik doesn't pose a threat, but he is simplistic in his approach and a veteran like Winky could give him major problems. If he tries to bang with Kelly, forget it, but he won't. Alot of what Kelly benefits from is his size, coupled with high workrate and very good power. But if it wasn't for his size I think he would have already beenn beaten, especially by guys like Taylor or Wright. He isn't a finesse guy, just a come forward beat/wear you down type who's desire is unquestionable; but a good boxer with size similar to Kelly will probably beat him. This is the type fight Kelly needs, to see where he stands and make him realize his flaws. I would imagine Kelly knows he has flaws but will keep doing it his way until he loses. He's a good champion but not unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination.