Pavlik dose his best moving forward at a decent distance. Lockett is 5'10" so he needs to get to the inside for the wingspan of Pavlik. Easier said than done. Pavlik will keep him at bay with jabs preventing Lockett from using his game plan. If Lockett dose come in he will get caught. Its allot easier to knock a guy out coming in than going away.
But if you watch alot of Pavliks fights he knocks guy out cold who are moving away. Lockett has never faced a guy of this pedigree and certifiably none with this kind of power and and sound technique. I see this one ending ugly in the 2-6 rounds. A first round would not surprise me a bit . This been a year of upsets but I don't see Pavlik coming in unfocused. He will come out with his A game as usual. A kid from northeast Ohio always comes to work and work is what makes us a separate breed up here.