Pavlik Announces Retirement

[donnydarkoIRL]

He could if he goes to the body but if he goes head hunting all night which he has done in the past then he will have big problems.

I see it to the contrary.
Pavlik is a lot taller than Winky, going to the body would mean sacrificing a lot of his power and also his height and reach advantages.

Pavlik's straight right is his favourite puch, Winky being a southpaw is succeptible to this.

Vargas had great success going to the body, i don't mean strictly go to the body i mean mix it up to the body and head. And yes Southpaw's biggest weakness is the straight right hand, but Wright is an excellent defensive fighter and Pavlik won't find it easy landing his punches, i can see him punching through Wright's guard though like Taylor did a few times.

Vargas was not of an equivalent build to Pavlik.
When an exceptionally tall fighter boxes a shorter fighter he will always use his reach in an attempt to keep the shorter man out.
The reasoning has a dual logic.
The first reason is that the shorter man will be more able to land on the inside.
The second is that the taller man will not be able to apply his power correctly against a shorter fighter as his leverage is muffled so to speak.

Winky is hot on defence, but Pavlik possesses the type of punch which can hurt you through the guard, can bruise forearms and damage muscles when hit flush.
Pavlik enjoys a lot of advantages in this fight and Winky has the odds stacked against him should this occur.