I feel Calzaghe's been showing his age for a couple of years, and for that I think Pavlik has an above evens chance of pulling it off. Stylistically (doesn't matter how straight nd powerful your right hand is) come forward guys are Calzaghe's bread and butter, it would be a hell of a fight (competitive) whichever JC that Pavlik would hypothetically face, but IMO Calzaghe's chances fade by the month.