Will the stock market hold...or is the bubble ready to burst?

[pacfan]

Does that mean any and all money we have in our banking accounts will be lost? (Like the Great Depression?)

No Clubber, it probably won't be that bad though. It would probably mean that some people will lose some money and lots of jobs would be gone. I actually don't see it happening; it's just the possibility of that happening that bothers me. The possibilility is there no doubt, but it is a small one. But who feel comfortable thinking even just the possibility of losing jobs, right? All I can say for sure is that it can happen, but it probably won't. Let's just keep our fingers crossed.

[Douglas]

Does that mean any and all money we have in our banking accounts will be lost? (Like the Great Depression?)

No Clubber, it probably won't be that bad though. It would probably mean that some people will lose some money and lots of jobs would be gone. I actually don't see it happening; it's just the possibility of that happening that bothers me. The possibilility is there no doubt, but it is a small one. But who feel comfortable thinking even just the possibility of losing jobs, right? All I can say for sure is that it can happen, but it probably won't. Let's just keep our fingers crossed.

What a relief. It's already hard enough to find a job out there as it is. Several factories in the town we live in have already been shut down, even though they'd been in business for years.

[Kirkland Laing]

[pacfan]

Ooogh. We not only have a stock bubble but also a debt bubble, part of which already burst. National (public) debt is always manageable but the level of those personal household debt is somewhat alarming, especially the increase in percentage relative to the disposable income. But let me tell you that debts themselves are not necessarily bad things as long as they are manageable. You can keep on borrowing and borrowing without problem as long as you have the capacity to pay the due amounts. But the problem is that any imbalance in the economy may affect that capacity or capability to pay. Now, we are faced with at least two of them, the subprime crisis and the high oil price. IMO, among the three of them, the debt crisis, high oil price and the stock market, one gotta give. So the way I see it, if the subprime debt crisis and the high oil price persists, the stock market, which is the barometer of economic health, will be increasingly vulnerable. But, good for us, even if it falls it'll probably be a soft landing like a domino tipped with short one-ended track. But - a big but - on the other hand, it is not entirely impossible that the domino could be a long, multi-ended tracks, which once tipped could have immense impact on the economy. I have to say that I'm not about to press the panic button, but still, it won't hurt to be prepared for the worst. So what I'm trying to impress upon you guys here is that you should at least be prepared for the worst, mentally and emotionally - there is nothing to lose. Though it's easy to exagerrate the effects of economic decline, the worst that can happen is that there will be more business and personal bankrupcies, more lost jobs, less or even negative economic growth, which translates as lesser overall wealth and declining values of your assets (properties) and earnings. Can you live with that? Of course you can. At least you guys in the developed world are still lucky because you probably won't go hungry, unlike the rest of the world.

[Kirkland Laing]

Ooogh. We not only have a stock bubble but also a debt bubble, part of which already burst. National (public) debt is always manageable but the level of those personal household debt is somewhat alarming, especially the increase in percentage relative to the disposable income. But let me tell you that debts themselves are not necessarily bad things as long as they are manageable. You can keep on borrowing and borrowing without problem as long as you have the capacity to pay the due amounts. But the problem is that any imbalance in the economy may affect that capacity or capability to pay. Now, we are faced with at least two of them, the subprime crisis and the high oil price. IMO, among the three of them, the debt crisis, high oil price and the stock market, one gotta give. So the way I see it, if the subprime debt crisis and the high oil price persists, the stock market, which is the barometer of economic health, will be increasingly vulnerable. But, good for us, even if it falls it'll probably be a soft landing like a domino tipped with short one-ended track. But - a big but - on the other hand, it is not entirely impossible that the domino could be a long, multi-ended tracks, which once tipped could have immense impact on the economy. I have to say that I'm not about to press the panic button, but still, it won't hurt to be prepared for the worst. So what I'm trying to impress upon you guys here is that you should at least be prepared for the worst, mentally and emotionally - there is nothing to lose. Though it's easy to exagerrate the effects of economic decline, the worst that can happen is that there will be more business and personal bankrupcies, more lost jobs, less or even negative economic growth, which translates as lesser overall wealth and declining values of your assets (properties) and earnings. Can you live with that? Of course you can. At least you guys in the developed world are still lucky because you probably won't go hungry, unlike the rest of the world.

What's going to happen in the future is that economys are going to keep growing, but the wealth generated by those economys is going to increasingly end up at the very top end of the earnings scale. People who have to work for a living are fucked as labour rates are increasingly arbitraged downwards by the billions of new workers in the global economy.


In America the median wage has stood still since Reagan took office and this generation won't do as well economically as their parents. For the next generation or two in industrialised countries, things will be increasingly tricky for their populations. But in the long run -- by which I mean the long run in which we're all dead -- economic circumstances will improve immeasurably.

[El Kabong]

Kirkland....always the happy go lucky, sunshine on my shoulders, today is a wonderful day kind of guy.


A better way to look at things is this way: "Now or in the recent future is a great time to invest"

[Kirkland Laing]

Kirkland....always the happy go lucky, sunshine on my shoulders, today is a wonderful day kind of guy.


A better way to look at things is this way: "Now or in the recent future is a great time to invest"

Here are a couple of articles for you to read. They're written by partner in one of the world's biggest investment firms. This guy is one of the high priests of globalisation, and these articles caused controversy in the financial community when they were released. They're long and have no pictures but for somebody just setting out on the earning curve they're very worth reading. Try taking in some actual facts instead of nonsense, you'll benefit in the long run :

Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum


Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum