Will the stock market hold...or is the bubble ready to burst?

[luvfightgame]

Mr. Doom and Gloom strikes again....we haven't even really had a TRUE recession.....although it might be better for everyone in the long run if we had one as it corrects the market in small doses as opposed to an economic doomsday a la the Great Depression.

If the US economy tanks then everyone else is going to follow....same thing happened a couple years ago with the Asian markets. Everyone was like "Oh my God the World is going to end China and Japan are having a hard time!!!" well everyone is still here.....and the greatest thing.....Europe is next....have fun yall

Are you basing our "true" recession on statistics? You might enjoy this article...

Behind the falsification of US economic data

[Kirkland Laing]

Whether the Dow takes a trip to 7000 in the next year or so depends on events, but one thing we are assured of is inflation. This is just the start of it, worth reading :

Pressure from oil prices spreads - International Herald Tribune


This is all down to the idiot Bush. I'm really furious about that guy right now. In a day or two I'm going to install a piece of art in this thread expressing my feelings for George.

[pacfan]

Yup, the effects of high oil price is starting to show their ugly faces little by little. As I've said, something's gotta give - either the oil price or debt crisis eases or the stock market goes, though that doesn't necessarily mean it'll end up in a depression, but definitely a recession at the least...

...go slow on the ol' man though, he ain't got much time left anyway, I mean in the office.

[Kirkland Laing]

Yup, the effects of high oil price is starting to show their ugly faces little by little. As I've said, something's gotta give - either the oil price or debt crisis eases or the stock market goes, though that doesn't necessarily mean it'll end up in a depression, but definitely a recession at the least...

...go slow on the ol' man though, he ain't got much time left anyway, I mean in the office.

The debt crisis is going to get a lot worse. It's going to get worse as long as house prices keep falling. We haven't seen the start of the bank failures yet, then there's all the investment banks which have bs accounting and are all in trouble. If it gets as bad as it could and the Fed bails everybody out as they almost certainly will, the amount of money they'll have to print to do it will see oil hit $250-300.

And that's just if the credit crunch doesn't extend past the current markets it's affecting. It's already making its way into regular prime debt, personal debt, you name it. Bond insurers are shitting themselves. The stock market tanking may not even be the worst problem we have to face. The credit swaps market is four times bigger in dollar value than the stock market and is built along the same principles as the CDOs and other credit implements that caused the subprime meltdown. If the contagion hits the swaps market, hang on to your hat.

What'll probably happen is that to save impending disaster the Fed and the world's central banks just bail everybody out, but the amount of money they'll need to print to do this will inflate prices to god knows where. That's probably the best-case scenario right now.

[pacfan]

What the heck was that, Kirk, that looked more like an end of the world scenario - an apocalypses! - than an economic crisis. Relax, buddy, here's a good news to cheer you up a bit.

BP chairman rejects "apocalyptic" talk of $250 oil - Yahoo! News

[Kirkland Laing]

What the heck was that, Kirk, that looked more like an end of the world scenario - an apocalypses! - than an economic crisis. Relax, buddy, here's a good news to cheer you up a bit.

BP chairman rejects "apocalyptic" talk of $250 oil - Yahoo! News

I'm not, I'm just talking about a bit of a meltdown in the financial system. I do also point out that however bad it gets all losses will have to be bailed out by the world's central banks, so it won't end in total disaster. There will however be a great deal of inflation which is what the Gazprom people are anticipating and what the BP guy is avoiding. The price of oil isn't being governed by how much is in the ground but by how many dollars the Fed is printing. More financial trouble, more dollars printed, higher oil prices/inflation.

[pacfan]

Yup, the feds have already injected tens of billions of dollars to bail out some troubled banks so we'll just have to hope that that will be it and the debt crisis eases - or else, the apocalyptic (ok, I'm exaggerating) oil price spike can just make it worst and put the world into another recession, at the least.

[Kirkland Laing]

Yup, the feds have already injected tens of billions of dollars to bail out some troubled banks so we'll just have to hope that that will be it and the debt crisis eases - or else, the apocalyptic (ok, I'm exaggerating) oil price spike can just make it worst and put the world into another recession, at the least.

We're just in the first stages of the credit crisis. When banks start failing we'll get some idea of the size of the problem. Washington Mutual just issued a denial that they're in trouble :

WaMu Statement Regarding Rumors of Regulatory Action: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance