As of right now, I'd pick Calzaghe to outbox Pavlik.

However, the longer this fight gets delayed, the more it would gradually go toward Pavlik. Not only is Calzaghe getting older, but the longer he's at 175, the harder it will be for him to get back down to 168 to fight Pavlik.

But if they were to fight this year, I'd make Calzaghe a favorite.