Well things changed. I was never all that high on Cotto at 140, thought he was fairly limited and not all that rounded out. He definitely didn't have the jab then he has now or at least he didn't use it enough. Walked opponents down to much, only worked really on the inside, didn't cut down the ring as well as he could (Torres fight) but when he fought Quintana I came around because of how improved he was. And he was, he stepped it up that night imo. And he's improved every fight since. He went from being limited to being one of the better, if not the best, all around fighter in the sport.

So it was a shift. Some fights are just incredibly difficult to pick. I found the Miranda-Pavlik RBR and remembered how much difficulty I was having predicting that one. If I remember correctly my prediction was pretty much right on in the RBR thread but I picked Miranda in the prediction contest because, if we saw beforehand those flush right hands Pavlik took, nobody would have picked him.

Some fights are just real toss ups. Some think of Cotto-Margarito like that. I don't but I get how some do. I don't think shifting opinions makes you fickle as long as you have good reason. I've shifted on plenty of fights from the time they were signed to the time they fought, felt completely different about them.

As for Margarito, I haven't really shifted on him. I still think any boxer with good movement is going to give him really big problems. Look at the Paul Williams fight it is case in point. Cotto isn't going to do that though so his chances are better at Cotto then they are say, I don't know let's throw out a name that isn't talked about much in regards to Margarito, Mayweather. But it's my belief that the talent gap is still pretty sizeable there and that's why I'm picking Cotto.