I think Pavlik is going to have more problems than some anticipate.

I see him winning just from output alone; and really cleaning up in the later rounds, but I don't see him ko'ing Hop.

I love this fight; for the simple reason it will teach Kelly alot IMO. He will learn to shore up the left side defense better, as he has a tendency to leave that jab hanging out a little long, or dropping it down to his side. Hopkins is going to catch him doing that, bet on it.

This will also be a big test for Kelly because he's going to get caught some shots to the body; which is where I feel the best chance of beating him comes from; at least stopping him anyways, or slowing him down enough to stop the constant attack he brings. That long thin body is going to be targeted by Hopkins and I can see Kelly getting dropped a couple of times.

Kelly isn't the bigger guy in this fight; like all his previous opponents. Maybe a slight heigth advantage, but that's it. And this will imo be a big challenge not being the "giant" in the fight.

But even a hater will say Kelly is a game guy, and there's no quit in him; so knocked down or not, he will come back harder and eventually the work rate will overwhelm Hopkins. He can't stay on the bicycle all night; and he can't fight a whole 12 anymore, so you'll see him picking his shots carefully; but he's not going to be a pushover for Kelly. This is a great oppurtunity for Pavlik to learn alot. Just my take on the whole thing.