Who will win, Obama or McCain?

[pacfan]

Economic Update:

I said a couple of weeks ago that it looks like the economy is now on a tipping point stage - it will either go worse or it will start to plod real slowly into recovery, and it seems like it's tipping towards a slow recovery, though still little early to say for sure. We'll have to see next month's housing sales data to know where the market is heading towards, at least in the short run.

It looks like the oil market bubble is collapsing a bit, succumbing to it's own bitter medicine - increase the price and you bring down the demand, and the price collapses. The funds that fed the oil market bubble, as well as that of the commodity market, seem to be moving towards the currency market and the stock market, as the dollar is starting to gain after a long decline, and the stock market also is on the rise again. Now, the regulators' job is the try to bring the interest rate down to bring back the confidence into the housing market because the rising interest was the direct cause of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the decline of oil and commodity prices, there should be more leeway for lowering the interest rate; but of course, inflationary pressure is what finally rules the interest rate. Given the slack in economy, I think if the oil and commodity prices continue to decline, the inflation rate should go down. If the feds can bring the interest rate substantially down, I think the housing market will start to stabilize, and with it, the economy as well. We shall see...

[Kirkland Laing]

Economic Update:

I said a couple of weeks ago that it looks like the economy is now on a tipping point stage - it will either go worse or it will start to plod real slowly into recovery, and it seems like it's tipping towards a slow recovery, though still little early to say for sure. We'll have to see next month's housing sales data to know where the market is heading towards, at least in the short run.

It looks like the oil market bubble is collapsing a bit, succumbing to it's own bitter medicine - increase the price and you bring down the demand, and the price collapses. The funds that fed the oil market bubble, as well as that of the commodity market, seem to be moving towards the currency market and the stock market, as the dollar is starting to gain after a long decline, and the stock market also is on the rise again. Now, the regulators' job is the try to bring the interest rate down to bring back the confidence into the housing market because the rising interest was the direct cause of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the decline of oil and commodity prices, there should be more leeway for lowering the interest rate; but of course, inflationary pressure is what finally rules the interest rate. Given the slack in economy, I think if the oil and commodity prices continue to decline, the inflation rate should go down. If the feds can bring the interest rate substantially down, I think the housing market will start to stabilize, and with it, the economy as well. We shall see...

I'll bet you a dollar house prices continue to fall for at least another year. It'll probably be closer to two.