Hopkins has more than a good chance, the only way i see it happening is by the usual hopkins way, make it an ugly wrestling fight, throw about 15-20 punches a round 10-15 of them in the last 30 seconds and just simply run the rest of the time and wait for pavlik to make a mistake, if it never comes let it go to the cards and if you loose bitch about the judging. I personally think pavlik will be over anxious and frustrated early but catches him in the middle rounds. A younger b-hop i think could weather it but this b-hop won't and pavlik (a white-boy no less) stops him for the first time. But i also picked peter so who knows.