Today in the economy

[killersheep]

3/2/09

Canada - GDP

Actual-1.00%|Forecast-0.70%|Previous-0.70%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) determines the total worth of all goods and services produced by the economy. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably as it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the country's currency. An upward trend has a positive effect on the country's currency.

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USA - ISM Manufacturing Index

Actual35.80|Forecast34.00|Previous35.60|


The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index determines the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a amount of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency.

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Australia - Retail Sales

Actual0.20%|Forecast-0.50%|Previous3.80%|

Determines the worth of sales at the retail level. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales as it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency as Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumption, which is a key driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP.

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Australia - Interest Rate Statement

Actual3.25%|Forecast3.00%|Previous3.25%

Each month, excluding January, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "cash rate"). The Board announces the decided rate shortly after the meeting, and when there is a change in rates they also releases a statement that contains the economic conditions that effected their decision. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 3%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation.

[Kirkland Laing]

3/2/09

Canada - GDP

Actual-1.00%|Forecast-0.70%|Previous-0.70%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) determines the total worth of all goods and services produced by the economy. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably as it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the country's currency. An upward trend has a positive effect on the country's currency.

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USA - ISM Manufacturing Index

Actual35.80|Forecast34.00|Previous35.60|


The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index determines the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a amount of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency.

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Australia - Retail Sales

Actual-|Forecast-0.50%|Previous3.80%|

Determines the worth of sales at the retail level. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales as it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency as Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumption, which is a key driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP.

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Australia - Interest Rate Statement

Actual-|Forecast3.00%|Previous3.25%

Each month, excluding January, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "cash rate"). The Board announces the decided rate shortly after the meeting, and when there is a change in rates they also releases a statement that contains the economic conditions that effected their decision. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 3%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation.

Australia are a bunch of irrelevany upside down motherfunkers as far as the global economy and many other things are concerned. Canada's heavily regulated socialist-style banking system has meant that Canada is the biggest economy least affected by this whole snafu. Contrast with ultra free-market Europe whose system is more in debt than the US and with no Fed to bail it out. A prediction. At some point Europe's banking system will suffer a near-terminal event and send the global system into panic. American conservatives will seize on this and blame socialist Europe and its socilaist banks for causing the whole crisis and claim it shows how government should be kept out of banking and the financial markets, even though Europe is a more free-market version of the US system. By the next election this will be an article of faith for all conservatives.

Europe melting down will have effects all over too, not least in America. The joys of globalisation and a globalised financial system.

[CGM]

Here's one year charts of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Dominion Bank. If this is a big economy least affected, I'd hate to see the worst affected.

[Kirkland Laing]

Here's one year charts of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Dominion Bank. If this is a big economy least affected, I'd hate to see the worst affected.

A recession and a global financial system meltdown has quite an adverse effect on any stock market index or financial stock so looking at the numbers right now doesn't give you the real picture. The measuring stick is solvency. None of Canada's banks are bankrupt and they haven't needed a bailout to remain solvent either. Despite already having been bailed out with trillions of dollars, major US/European/Asian banks are all bankrupt.

[CGM]

Here's one year charts of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Dominion Bank. If this is a big economy least affected, I'd hate to see the worst affected.

A recession and a global financial system meltdown has quite an adverse effect on any stock market index or financial stock so looking at the numbers right now doesn't give you the real picture. The measuring stick is solvency. None of Canada's banks are bankrupt and they haven't needed a bailout to remain solvent either. Despite already having been bailed out with trillions of dollars, major US/European/Asian banks are all bankrupt.

OK, if we are talking about bank solvency, then perhaps we are better off in some respects. But when it comes down to the usual recession and market issues and impact to the average person because of what has happened, Canada is not really that much better off than anyone else, which is the point I was making.

[Kirkland Laing]

Here's one year charts of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Toronto Dominion Bank. If this is a big economy least affected, I'd hate to see the worst affected.

A recession and a global financial system meltdown has quite an adverse effect on any stock market index or financial stock so looking at the numbers right now doesn't give you the real picture. The measuring stick is solvency. None of Canada's banks are bankrupt and they haven't needed a bailout to remain solvent either. Despite already having been bailed out with trillions of dollars, major US/European/Asian banks are all bankrupt.

OK, if we are talking about bank solvency, then perhaps we are better off in some respects. But when it comes down to the usual recession and market issues and impact to the average person because of what has happened, Canada is not really that much better off than anyone else, which is the point I was making.

I was kind of hoping your PM would stick to the no stimulus policy so we could have a control experiment in a major economy to compare to countries that had one. Sorry about that. And having a solvent banking system definitely makes you better off. You won't have to raise trillions in taxes over the next few decades to pay for late 2000s losses by your banks unlike other major economies.

[killersheep]

3/3/09

Canada - Interest Rate Statement

Actual0.50%|Forecast0.50%|Previous1.00%

Eight times per year the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governing Council meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "overnight rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.

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Australia - GDP

Actual-|Forecast0.10%|Previous0.10%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) determines the total worth of all goods and services produced by the economy. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably as it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the country's currency. An upward trend has a positive effect on the country's currency.

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USA - Bernanke testifies

Ben Bernake, US federal reserve chairman will be testifying before a house panel regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.

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EU - Trichet speaks

European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference after the bi-monthly Bank for Intercountryal Settlements (BIS) meeting, in Basel. As head of the ECB's governing body, which is responsible for setting the euro zone's short term interest rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as Currency traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.