The way I see it is through the match ups these guys have.

Froch-Dirrell: Dirrell has answered a lot of questions, he's not got the greatest chin, he has great athletic ability and handspeed. Dirrell can also switch from lefty to righty pretty decently. I just think his handspeed and his stamina will help him vs Froch. 50/50 fight, I think Dirrell is a fresher, faster, and more powerful version of JT.

Abraham-Taylor: AA is a lot like Bernard Hopkins, he gives away rounds and JT has done well with that before, all he has to do is pace himself and use some damn defense!!! 70/30 AA is at the advantage with his current form BUT this will be the first fight he has ever had at 168 and he might be like Pavlik and can't fight there for some odd reason.

Kessler-Ward: Andre Ward is the greenest of the fighters in this tourny and Kessler is the most experienced. It would be a MAJOR upset for Mikkel to lose this bout. 80/20 obviously in favor of Kessler.

The only way I would give Froch a better shot to win is if he either fought JT again (which would still be difficult) or Andre Ward. It would have been nice if Tavoris Cloud could have made 168 for this!