I'd pick Pavlik to win at this stage.

Jones at this stage lays on the ropes for long periods of time and that would favor Pavlik because he would be there for Pavlik to hit at, unlike Hopkins was who used lots of lateral movement to throw Pavlik off.

Pavlik wouldn't try to smother Jones like Lacy did either, he would use his jab to set the range and follow with right hands and body shots at range.

Jones would win a few rounds but he would get outworked and eventually stopped if Pavlik could land enough bombs.