Pondering 2 Outcomes Of the Cotto Vs Pac Fight

[Rican]

I got to thinking about this earlier today... Everyone knows I wasn't a huge fan of Cotto before the Margarito hand wrap bullshit. I will say that he showed true grit and heart by coming back especially dealing with the Clottey adversity the way he did and putting himself in line for this mega showdown.

I can only see 2 outcomes given the styles involved

1) Pac getting timed, jabbed, tormented to the body and counterpunched all night and getting stopped in 8-9 rounds.

2)Pac using his speed and angles and implementing uppercuts through Cotto guard to soften him, slow him down and eventually brutalizing him to stoppage late or on the stool...

I like to pull for #1 but I think another brutal war and Cotto will have lost to many steps. He took a beating vs Margacheato and got punished by Clottey and if he gets broken up by Pac thats a lot of wars against tough guys to still remain on top.

My overall prediction is your number one. I also think your number two is possible, but without the KO/stoppage. Way bigger men have been unable to do it to Cotto.

[Althugz]

Can't wait for this fight..another "pick 'em" fight for me

If Cotto can use perfect timing like he did in the Mosely fight, he will have success against Pac.

The reason Marquez had so much success was because Pacquaio's feet leave him well out of position after he is done throwing those speedy and aggressive combinations. That's what I saw anyway. If Cotto is on his game and sharp enough, the size and strength should be enough to see the Pacman off.

It is becoming damn difficult to bet against the pacman though!

[Kel]

We all know what Pac is capable of with the correct fight plan, Freddie will no doubt have him 100% prepared for Cotto. Saying that, I see Cotto hurting Pac early to the body and Pac retreating and getting caught on the ropes a few times.

Cotto by KO/TKO in rounds 5 to 11 after dropping Pac once or twice.

[Spicoli]

Very much wanting the first scenario with a Cotto win.Deserves it,has the tools to pull it off and is a peaked fluid and very much improved boxer with legit power in both hands.No spent shells here,no wild swinging face first guy here and certainly no human punching bag keeping a belt warm for Manny.

But,I'm still leaning slightly towards the 2nd scenario,on cuts down the stretch.But can not see him dropping Cotto,no way.Out hustling,straight volume shots and having Cotto one step behind him as the fight progresses.Don't think Manny is stronger than him,but very much hate Miguel's tendency to box out to the ropes and slide or square up.Its a pattern.

[Majesty]

Cotto is going to get dominated I'm sorry to say.

The second part is whats gonna happen.

The way Cotto has looked lately gives all the signs that Pacquiao is gonna dominate him. Pacquiao is faster, hits hard, and punches in combination, the way Cotto dealt with Clottey is a tell sign that mentally he is still a fighter searching for a passion. Clottey had him looking discouraged in there like he was remembering Margarito all over again, and it was only after Clottey took his foot off the gas Cotto could do something and even then was content with single shotting and doing just enough to take the rounds. He is looking for a break where he can feel confident again. Pacquiao won't give him that much of a break, if Cotto starts feeling discouraged so soon Pacquiao is gonna pour it on him and massacre him. Cotto is mentally not the same since that Margarito fight. Cotto is going downhill mentally and he can't afford it against Pacquiao. He knows he can be beat, and he knows he can be outlasted, that Margarito handwraps story and stuff like that(that he used it in the Cotto fight even though that was never proven) only hurts a fighter like Cotto. Just like when people told Hatton the only reason Mayweather beat him was because he was 147, people telling Cotto the only reason Margarito beat him was because he probably used handwraps, it gives a fighter a false sense of security. Then Cotto starts breaking down in the same way in the Clottey fight and there is no excuse, it can mentally scar a fighter to get faked into believing their first loss they werent vulnerable then realizing its true. Pacquiao is NOT the kind of fighter he should be fighting right now.

[Taeth]

I've been saying I think Pacquiao will dominate because Cotto has faced two guys with great speed in Mosley and Judah, but MOsley likely due to his power and beard never has been much of a mover, his physical attributes are such that he doesn't need to do anything but stand there and trade or move back a bit and load up on hooks, and Judah IMO thinks his speed is all important, and that he has the reflexes to dodge oncoming punches, but because he doesn't move his feet, elite opponents figure him out in a round or two, and once they have the timing and range they land the right cross and body punches at will on him, and nothing comes back.

The one thing that worries me for Pacquiao is that Cotto adapts, he doesn't come in with a specific gameplan, he fights each opponent based on what they are bringing to the table. If he makes a mid fight shift in styles that allows him to find PAcquiao then I can't see Pacquiao beating him. Cotto hits a lot harder than Marquez and he goes to the body so well, and if he finds his range then Manny doesn't have the defensive skills to defend himself, and if they get into a shootout Cotto will win for sure, but I can't see this happening just because you can't hit what you can't catch and Manny isn't going to need great defensive skills if he can maintain enough distance, and clinch in close.

The problem I always see for Manny is that he doesn't adapt well, I think he is getting better as he is acquiring better overall skills, but guys like Calzaghe, Hopkins, Marquez, Cotto, Kessler, Mayweather, Whitaker, prime RJJ etc can do so many different thinks in the ring that they can change up their style. Manny, I haven't seen that when he hits a road block even though he has improved his boxing skills, he doesn't seem to make the changes necessary to make himself more effective, sort of along the lines of Jermain Taylor, Judah, Pavlik, Mosley, etc. if they don't come in with a really good game plan that is effective all night against the wrong opponent they are in trouble. Mosley and Pacquiao at least have the speed to compensate a little bit, but they still don't adapt the same way.

[jamiebhoy]

I've been saying I think Pacquiao will dominate because Cotto has faced two guys with great speed in Mosley and Judah, but MOsley likely due to his power and beard never has been much of a mover, his physical attributes are such that he doesn't need to do anything but stand there and trade or move back a bit and load up on hooks, and Judah IMO thinks his speed is all important, and that he has the reflexes to dodge oncoming punches, but because he doesn't move his feet, elite opponents figure him out in a round or two, and once they have the timing and range they land the right cross and body punches at will on him, and nothing comes back.

The one thing that worries me for Pacquiao is that Cotto adapts, he doesn't come in with a specific gameplan, he fights each opponent based on what they are bringing to the table. If he makes a mid fight shift in styles that allows him to find PAcquiao then I can't see Pacquiao beating him. Cotto hits a lot harder than Marquez and he goes to the body so well, and if he finds his range then Manny doesn't have the defensive skills to defend himself, and if they get into a shootout Cotto will win for sure, but I can't see this happening just because you can't hit what you can't catch and Manny isn't going to need great defensive skills if he can maintain enough distance, and clinch in close.

The problem I always see for Manny is that he doesn't adapt well, I think he is getting better as he is acquiring better overall skills, but guys like Calzaghe, Hopkins, Marquez, Cotto, Kessler, Mayweather, Whitaker, prime RJJ etc can do so many different thinks in the ring that they can change up their style. Manny, I haven't seen that when he hits a road block even though he has improved his boxing skills, he doesn't seem to make the changes necessary to make himself more effective, sort of along the lines of Jermain Taylor, Judah, Pavlik, Mosley, etc. if they don't come in with a really good game plan that is effective all night against the wrong opponent they are in trouble. Mosley and Pacquiao at least have the speed to compensate a little bit, but they still don't adapt the same way.

I agree with Manny not being very diverse. He seems to just do what he does best and thinks it will work every time. I don't think he can rest on his laurels for this fight, Cotto is a real challenge. The last two fights Manny had didn't tell us anything and he wasn't even slightly tested ( I know some will say because he did his job too well which is also true)

Problem for me is cuts, Cotto will be catching some pretty fast shots that may or may not hurt him but will damage him roud the eyes.

If you get to round 5 with Manny you have a serious shot, he seems to run out of ideas and takes a few rounds to start listening to suggestions from the corner, it's at this point when he gets a little frustrated that Cotto needs to take it to him. He may have speed but Pac also has balls and will try and mix it up with you to show he's just as tough.

I remember one of the commentators for a Pac fight point out that he was showing good movement in the middle rounds of a fight and had great energy , Manny Steward said yeah that's nice but maybe he should throw some punches with it.

I hope Cotto takes him to deep water and really tests him, I for one like them both, but want to see how Pacman handles being put on his arse and comes back.

I still stick with saying that if he gets beaten then Pac retires.

head = Pac
heart = Cotto

[leftylee]

This aint 50/50. Pacquiao smashes Cotto.

[Rican]

Very much wanting the first scenario with a Cotto win.Deserves it,has the tools to pull it off and is a peaked fluid and very much improved boxer with legit power in both hands.No spent shells here,no wild swinging face first guy here and certainly no human punching bag keeping a belt warm for Manny.

But,I'm still leaning slightly towards the 2nd scenario,on cuts down the stretch.But can not see him dropping Cotto,no way.Out hustling,straight volume shots and having Cotto one step behind him as the fight progresses.Don't think Manny is stronger than him,but very much hate Miguel's tendency to box out to the ropes and slide or square up.Its a pattern.

This was excellent analysis. However, Miguel seems to go to the ropes later in his fights and only against BIGGER guys. I can only remember Cotto relying on the ropes against Abdullaev, Mosley, Margarito, and Clottey. When Cotto is bigger and more powerful, he doesn't lose his stamina and doesn't go on the ropes. Does this point change your concerns about Cotto's "pattern"/"tendency"?

[zhubin]

Even though Pac has improved his skills tremendously over the past few years...he is still come forward, offensive fighter. To be effective against him...you need to be an excellent counter puncher...like Marquez. Pac loves to jump in and out...so you have to have excellent timing and speed to catch him. Cotto is not that kind of fighter. Don't get me wrong...Cotto has great skill...but using the Mosley, Judah fights to predict what will happen against Pac is all wrong. Sure, Mosley is fast...but he is no counter puncher. And that Mosley fight was damn close...and we all know Shane was no spring chicken. Judah is a bit more fluid than Shane...and his fight with Cotto was by no means a blowout. Zab had Cotto timed perfectly for most the fight...but as we all know....Zab is not the smartest or fittest fighter out there. Not trying to discredit Cotto's wins...it's just that against a very fast and extremely fit fighter like Pac...you better be mentally and physically at the top of your game. No question Cotto can hurt Pac...but for him to do that...he has to catch Pac. If he is going to be running around the ring trying to catch Pac against the ropes with body shots...he will have no chance. He will have to fight with controlled aggresion. Using his jab...and baiting Pac to come in where he can counter him. Not sure if that is a style of fighting Cotto can implement.