I think Pacquiao will win for reasons I have said a hundred times, but people need to realize Cotto didn't always come forward in his career, there are plenty of times he fought going backwards before Margarito, most notably against
Abdullaev and Ndou. Cotto has no problem conceding the lead to his opponent, he doesn't mind going backwards, its just Margarito, cheating or not is a freak of nature in terms of his punch output and chin.

Cotto has pretty slick defensive skills, but he can be hit, and especially if you are throwing as many punches as Margarito.