Nobel Prize goes to Obama...

[Kirkland Laing]

OK so let's get this straight Kirkland, the Stimulus was supposed to help really quick, it was supposed to make jobs RIGHT NOW.....then why have we not spent all that money yet? Why are we saving money (so to speak) only to spend it later on......and more importantly why are we still losing jobs I thought the recession was over? I thought Obama fixed everything?

It's difficult to spend all the money they allocated effectively in such a short space of time. It's actually more effective in terms of monetary flows and velocity to spread it out over a couple of years. We're still losing jobs because that's what happens when you have a recession. Technically we're probaly out of recession round about now, and if this recession is that same as the last two then unemployment will continue to go up for another 18 months before it starts to stabilise.


But we need to spend money to avert a death-spiral situation because this recession has been so devastating, even compared to previous recessions. Without the stimulus and the Fed flooding the financial system with liquidity we'd be full steam ahead into another Depression. Here's a handy chart that explains things quite well :




The dotted red line is our current situation based on the very latest numbers, the dotted red data being maybe two weeks old now. You can see that with the last few recessions, as offshoring and outsourcing of jobs/cheap Asian labour have gradually supplanted large chunks of what used to be US jobs, it's taken longer and longer for employment to return to pre-recession levels. Even if this was a run-of-the-mill recession we'd be looking at another 12-18 months minimum from now before unemployment stopped rising. But you can see how severe this recession is. It could easily take years for things to get back to 2007-level employment even if management of the recovery and the financial system goes as well as can be expected.

[El Kabong]

So either it's "The stimulus needs time to work" in which case it's not the "quick fix" they sold us OR it's "We never knew it was this bad, we simply had no idea"

Kirkland, thank you for the chart though

[Kirkland Laing]

So either it's "The stimulus needs time to work" in which case it's not the "quick fix" they sold us OR it's "We never knew it was this bad, we simply had no idea"

Kirkland, thank you for the chart though

Who told you it was a quick fix? This is another of your FACTS Lyle.

They knew it really was that bad, just when things are really fragile the American President, Treasury topper, Fed chief don't go to the media and say "It's really bad, we're fucked!" because that would send the markets into a spin. Instead you try and project confidence that things will get better. So they did exactly what they should have done. But nobody ever used the phrase "quick fix" to describe the response to the meltdown. Quite the opposite in fact.

[El Kabong]

Kirkland, Obama and Congress said "We need this stimulus package NOW and if we don't get it now we're screwed"....well if the majority of the money hasn't been spent yet and people are saying the recession is coming to an end then of course I am going to say "Did we really need it?" and if we did and we're now coming out of it or nearing the end of it then "Do we need to spend the rest of it?"

And if the Economic Stimulus Package is so great then why didn't you give W props for his Stimulus spending spree

[Kirkland Laing]

Kirkland, Obama and Congress said "We need this stimulus package NOW and if we don't get it now we're screwed"....well if the majority of the money hasn't been spent yet and people are saying the recession is coming to an end then of course I am going to say "Did we really need it?" and if we did and we're now coming out of it or nearing the end of it then "Do we need to spend the rest of it?"

And if the Economic Stimulus Package is so great then why didn't you give W props for his Stimulus spending spree

Every time I point out you're wrong on the FACTS you invent new ones. Bush didn't need to spend money, he'd inherited a budget surplus, not a once-in-a-century meltdown.

[El Kabong]

Every time I point out you're wrong on the FACTS you invent new ones. Bush didn't need to spend money, he'd inherited a budget surplus, not a once-in-a-century meltdown.

Did I invent that
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB_lILm-r50
"They need help now"...DIRECT QUOTE from Obama

As for Bush, if I recall correctly the Sub Prime bubble burst in 2008 while W was still in office.

[AdamGB]

Playing devil's advocate here:

If you had a migraine, your head is unbearably hurting... you know the tablet will start to alleviate it in about 15 minutes.

But you wouldn't think to yourself 'my head is fucking killing, I need a pain killer in 15 minutes time...' you'd need it 'now'

I'll admit I don't know a great deal about this stimulus, but saying that something is needed right now isn't the same as saying something will work right now, is it?

Like I say, I'm just being devil's advocate here and I probably won't have as much insite into this as an American would, but from the logic I've seen in this thread... Obama saying that something is needed right now isn't the same as saying that it's a quick fix, just that things need to be put into motion right now.

If I was going to piss my pants in 30 seconds time, I'd need to start walking to the bathroom... right now! It wouldn't be safe to piss as soon as I started walking there though

[Kirkland Laing]

Every time I point out you're wrong on the FACTS you invent new ones. Bush didn't need to spend money, he'd inherited a budget surplus, not a once-in-a-century meltdown.

Did I invent that
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EB_lILm-r50"They need help now"...DIRECT QUOTE from Obama

As for Bush, if I recall correctly the Sub Prime bubble burst in 2008 while W was still in office.

You're inventing the FACT that Obama was the only person asking for a stimulus. Both sides agreed that there needed to be one, they just disagreed on how to do it. Now if you go back and compare this FACT to the original FACT you were wrong about you'll see you've gone off on a tangent again.

It wasn't a subprime bubble, it was a housing and general credit bubble, subprime was only a small part of it. And it started as well as finished during Bush's presidency, Bush allowing the easy money policies and scrapping masses of regulations that allowed the bubble to form and the meltdown to happen.