Saddoboxing Presents: Prediction Contest Nine (AUG14 - DEC20)

[Comegalletas]

After my first season in Saddoboxing Prediction Contest, I have a few suggestions:

A.- Things that just need to be documented in the rules:

1.- Technical Decisions. A TD is also considered a UD (or MD, SD)? I guess it should, but it is not currently stipulated one way or the other by the rules.

2.- No Contest. Which is the time limit to allow for a NC? The fight night decision stands, or there is a time window to change it? Most after-fight NC are for doping tests, but there are others that could took several weeks, as Bradley - Campbell. Any reasonable rule is OK (night result stands, two days, one week, the duration of the season); but it has to be clearly stipulated. Also, what happens with the joker in NC fights? 3 points sounds fair.

3.- The "Points" result. Sometimes there are only one judge in UK fights, so the decision cannot be graded UD, SD, MD. In such cases, I guess the correct procedure is to convert any UD, MD and SD prediction into Pts, earning 6 points.

4.- Final tie. What happens if two players finish the season with the same points? I guess an extra week should be used to break the tie between them. Again, it would be good to have it documented.

5.- Drawn fights. Currently the rule states: "Should your fighter of choice go down in flames no points you will be awarded.". It ought to say "Should your fighter of choice draws or go down in flames no points you will be awarded.".

All these points are fairly easy to implement, as they does not change the contest as it is currently run.

B.- More significant changes:

1.- Point weighting. Currently the points assigned to differen choices are skewed to the conservative side. The vanilla "Pts" and "KO/TKO" are most often the best value at 6 points each. The only risky proposition that is fair value is UD at 8 points. SD, MD, TD, DQ and Draw are losing propositions. The same goes for KO; picking a round is usually a bad bet. Maybe they should get more points, but it has to be carefully designed. The other thing that sounds bad is "If you just type the name of the winning fighter you will score 1 point"; it should be at least 3 points.

2.- Script: I think that a script would make easier and less error prone the administration of the contest. Saddo looked at it, and said he prefers the forum method, as it is more presonal. That is OK, I hope we have a BoxingGorilla for many seasons

Regards,

Comegalletas

[Fatsandman]

SD, MD, TD, DQ and Draw are losing propositions.

If it wasn't for the two Split Decisions I picked in the final week of league 7 I wouldn't have won. SD isn't always a losing proposition ;-)

[Comegalletas]

SD, MD, TD, DQ and Draw are losing propositions.

If it wasn't for the two Split Decisions I picked in the final week of league 7 I wouldn't have won. SD isn't always a losing proposition ;-)

Of course, any proposition has to be evaluated with its odds. If you bet Pacquiao to beat Mayweather laying 2 to 1, it is a bad bet. Even if it ends winning, the odds are against you, and in the long run such bets will cost you.

The same happens with MD and SD predictions. SD gets 10 points; any Pts give 6. So, if you fail with the SD label, you lose 3 points, if you get it right, it rewards you 4 points. So, you need a 3/7 possibility of a SD, or 42.8% to break even. In my view, not any fight can have such a high possibility of a decision being split. My estimation is about 25%, maybe even less.

Of course, in the last week of a season the game has a different dynamic. Then, you can gamble to have a shot to the championship. So, a SD, a KO1 or any other "bad value" bets are useful plays. I am sure you are referring to there bets. So, you are right in that special situation.

[KKisser]

i proposed sd and md be bunch together like the ko/tko rule. it gets frustrating when you feel it's going to be a close fight in favor of one fighter and when you predict an sd or an md then it goes the other way it just sucks. i think there's not much difference between the two anyways.