UK Prime Ministerial candidate debate

[Howlin Mad Missy]

politically I'm green/anarchist but there isn't such a party.

[Jimanuel Boogustus]

politically I'm green/anarchist but there isn't such a party.

See... Why do we have to be seen to vote for change? Why cant we/ don't we just change it our bloody selves?!

I'm starting to hog threads again. I'm going for lunch

[superheavyrhun]

I'm not entirely sure myself Missy, but I imagine that if the Tories don't get a majority, and Labour/Lib Dems have enough if they join together then they could form their own coalition.

Tried to find out on the BBC website, and I think this says that it's possible, but not entirely sure:

BBC News - Q&A: What is a hung parliament?

[ryanman]

I'm not entirely sure myself Missy, but I imagine that if the Tories don't get a majority, and Labour/Lib Dems have enough if they join together then they could form their own coalition.

Tried to find out on the BBC website, and I think this says that it's possible, but not entirely sure:

BBC News - Q&A: What is a hung parliament?

That is correct.

[ryanman]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

[Fenster]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

[Gandalf]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

Haha, Ryanman has the same degree as me. But the truth is that history and politics is the most pointless of all subjects that anyone could ever study. It leads nowhere. Only to intelligent people saying "why did my intelligence lead nowhere?" It can lead somewhere, but nowhere beyond the music store.

This is part of the con. We all need education! Do we fuck! We don't need an education. But the government fed that shit for too many years.

Just make sure you don't vote Labour nor Tory...or you are commiting suicide. At least the Lib Dems suggest some hope.

[ryanman]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

Haha, Ryanman has the same degree as me. But the truth is that history and politics is the most pointless of all subjects that anyone could ever study. It leads nowhere. Only to intelligent people saying "why did my intelligence lead nowhere?" It can lead somewhere, but nowhere beyond the music store.

This is part of the con. We all need education! Do we fuck! We don't need an education. But the government fed that shit for too many years.

Just make sure you don't vote Labour nor Tory...or you are commiting suicide. At least the Lib Dems suggest some hope.

You are very right about the pointlessness of a Politics degree Miles...If only I knew in advance! I wish I studied a vocational subject. Still perhaps I can put it to use to earn Fenster some money. (see next post).

[Howlin Mad Missy]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

Haha, Ryanman has the same degree as me. But the truth is that history and politics is the most pointless of all subjects that anyone could ever study. It leads nowhere. Only to intelligent people saying "why did my intelligence lead nowhere?" It can lead somewhere, but nowhere beyond the music store.

This is part of the con. We all need education! Do we fuck! We don't need an education. But the government fed that shit for too many years.

Just make sure you don't vote Labour nor Tory...or you are commiting suicide. At least the Lib Dems suggest some hope.

Stephen Fry....I rest my case!

[ryanman]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

A few factors to consider here (as ever).
All things been equal I would still expect Clegg to 'win' the next debate due to some of the same factors that 'won' him the first debate, but by a much smaller margin as he now has expectations on him.
But the theme of the next debate is 'international issues' - something which should favour the incumbant (ie Brown). This theme should hurt Cameron as he has no actual experience on such matters and will be seen as a bit of a novice/lightweight on such issues. This is obviously an issue for Clegg too but he will be hurt less because the Lib Dems opposed the war in Iraq.

In terms of who I think will do best in the next debate I'm quite sure it will be Brown. But in terms of who will 'win' (as decided by polls) it will probably be Clegg again. I happen to think that in terms of who did best last night it was Clegg, Brown then Cameron. But the polls don't reflect that. That is Brown's main problem - the residual dislike of him plus the fact that the incumbant is the only one that has something to defend. He will have to absolutely kick arse to be given the win. But, I think that he represents a better shot than Cameron on this next debate. Basically because Cameron is caught between two stools. He can't attack Brown's foreign policies because he supported most of them but he also doesn't get the 'better the devil you know' effect that plays quite strongly in international issues.

So, in summary, Clegg is the safe bet but Brown is the value. Just don't back Cameron. (although Cameron probably has a better chance of coming second than Brown does, but has less chance of winning. Fenster will know what I mean).

[superheavyrhun]

With the theme for the next episode being international issues, here's how I think it'll go, and how I think Clegg has to be more careful in this one.

Afghanistan :- Here we'll be getting a middle of the road line for all parties, a swift withdrawal would be construed as reckless and leaving the Afghanis to the Taliban, whilst looking at it as too permanent occupation is likely to raise cost implication arguments. Phased withdrawal all-round. Expect Cameron to attack Brown again regarding helicopters and equipment, and whilst those two bicker Clegg will come out well.

Iran & North Korea :- This is where I think Clegg could trip himself up a little. If he bangs the anti-trident drum too much he might lose some support, he needs to emphasise the international co-operation side, and that action by all other nations together will be more effective at solving problems than a few nuclear warheads. Expect Brown and Cameron to argue over the small details whilst both supporting keeping trident because we need the deterrent, whether it makes lesser nations to aspire to being nuclear powers or not.

Europe and US :- Not sure if the tories are as anti-europe as they used to be, but I'm sure Cameron will attack regarding the amendments to the European constitution which were passed through without referendum, whilst Clegg and Brown posture whilst maintaining the status quo. As for the US, they'll all want to maintain the special relationship without excluding the rest of the world.

I think Brown is going to get hammered in this one, there's been too many mistakes internationally in the last 13 years for him to come out on top. I'd say Cameron's the value bet but Clegg a strong favourite again.

[ryanman]

I know quite a lot about this crap . Feel free to ask any questions relating to processes etc. I have a politics degree don't you know?

With your expertise in these opposame matters, can you tell me who is most likely to "win" the next debate?

The yellow man is now 1/2 favourite (5/2 blue 5/1 red). Now that people know who the yellow man is, surely that puts him under the cosh for the next show?

Do you think a blue or red bet is value? Thanks.

A few factors to consider here (as ever).
All things been equal I would still expect Clegg to 'win' the next debate due to some of the same factors that 'won' him the first debate, but by a much smaller margin as he now has expectations on him.
But the theme of the next debate is 'international issues' - something which should favour the incumbant (ie Brown). This theme should hurt Cameron as he has no actual experience on such matters and will be seen as a bit of a novice/lightweight on such issues. This is obviously an issue for Clegg too but he will be hurt less because the Lib Dems opposed the war in Iraq.

In terms of who I think will do best in the next debate I'm quite sure it will be Brown. But in terms of who will 'win' (as decided by polls) it will probably be Clegg again. I happen to think that in terms of who did best last night it was Clegg, Brown then Cameron. But the polls don't reflect that. That is Brown's main problem - the residual dislike of him plus the fact that the incumbant is the only one that has something to defend. He will have to absolutely kick arse to be given the win. But, I think that he represents a better shot than Cameron on this next debate. Basically because Cameron is caught between two stools. He can't attack Brown's foreign policies because he supported most of them but he also doesn't get the 'better the devil you know' effect that plays quite strongly in international issues.

So, in summary, Clegg is the safe bet but Brown is the value. Just don't back Cameron. (although Cameron probably has a better chance of coming second than Brown does, but has less chance of winning. Fenster will know what I mean).

On the face of it my advice looks bad. BUT...3 of the 4 major polls show Clegg as the winner. Actually one has it basically 30%,30%,30%. But Cameron won the yougov poll. Last time the bookies paid out based on the ICM poll (which Clegg won both times) but for some reason they switched to the yougov poll. Sorry Fenster.