
Originally Posted by
hattonthehammer

Originally Posted by
RozzySean
For betting, I like these wagers:
To Win - Italy is the smartest money at 13/1. Germany have two tough games in group, a decent US team in round 2, and Argentina in the Quarters. I like Italy's odds of coming though group clean, not taking care of business in round 2, and picking off Spain MUCH more than I like Germany's chances of doing the same and picking off Argentina. Argentina at 8/1 would be good, except for Maradona.
Finalists - Argentina/Germany and Argentina/Italy are decent bets at 50/1.
Qualification -
France at 11/4 to not qualify. They could bungle this group easily.
Bet both Australia at 5/2 and Serbia 5/4 to qualify. I can't see Ghana advancing, and the payout is better you bet both Serbia and Australia to advance compared to betting Ghana to fail. I'm also taking at Serbia 4/1 to win group. I give the Serbs a reasonable chance shot to beat Germany. If Germany chokes, you win big and the Serbia to qualify bet covers your longshots.
Switzerland 2/1 to qualify and 11/1 to win. Spain are great, but they can be flaky. Chile are beatable. This is probably the only good bet on a number 3 team in a group.
Denmark 6/5 to qualify and Holland 10/13 to win look solid. I'm not big on either Cameroon or Japan. Denmark have advanced every time they qualified. Denmark 9/2 to win is not a bad idea, either.
spain and england notorious for under performing at world cups as are portugal for over acheiving
Expecting the status quo this year also
From an outsiders perspective, England doesn't underperform as much as you think. They are often not as good as the English think they are.
Portugal overachieve? They certainly underperformed in 2002. In 2006 they won a weak group, picked off good but not great Holland team, and won on penalties to an England team that included a hobbled Beckham and an immature and injured Wayne Rooney. Lennon was still a kid, and Crouch wasn't the player then that he is now. Then they lost to French geriatrics. I don't think Portugal overachieved much. This year, Portugal isn't as strong as the 2006 and they have a tougher group. They might not make it out of group phase.
In 2006, England won a strong group, beat a good Ecuador team, and lost to a VERY good Portugal team on penalties. They had a difficult draw for both the group and the knockout phase. England fans expected Rooney to be then what he is now, and they though they belonged in the finals. No. They weren't that good.
With or without Lennon and Ashley Cole, this team is better than the 06 team. They don't have a Beckham distraction. They have more depth at Forward by far, and even if Lennon can't go, Ashley Young is an excellent alternative. Lampard and Gerrard are still strong. They have a favorable group, and although they probably have a tough 2rd round game, they will probably get a soft opponent in the Quarters.
If England get bounced before the Semi's this year, call them underachievers. This is the best team you've had in a long time, and you have a good draw. You could realistically win this thing. Unfortunately, England goes to the Semi's and loses a close game, you'll cry can call them underachievers anyway.
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