I thought even a month ago that Pacquiao would win, but until he shows me absolute requirements for beating Duran, I think he would get beaten up in a good war like Leonard did, except worse. IMO there is much more subtlety to what Duran does than what Pacquiao does, sure they are both aggressive and explosive fighters, but while Pacquiao has advantages on the outside, I think Duran's advantages on the inside are far more profound. Pacquiao knows how to use angles from the outside and how to get in and out, but Duran knew angles on the inside and how to corner a guy, Pacquiao looked great against Hatton when Hatton tried to pressure him, but Duran was so much more clever at cutting off the ring and he was far more aware defensively. If Pacquiao was able to fight like Rigondeaux or Whitaker as part of his fight game then he might stand a change by countering from the outside, but he isn't that type of elusive fighter. Also DUran was one of the few guys who could get into great shape when he deemed it necessary. If Manny went onto the ropes like he did against Cotto he would be mauled all night long. That being said Pacquiao is a great warrior with incredible stamina and heart, I think more often than not Duran beats him, but you could never count Pacqiuao out of this fight, but I think he just doesn't have enough facets to deal with Duran.

I also feel Mayweather will beat Pacquiao for similar reasons, he takes better angles, he has far more diversity in his style, and he doesn't have a predictable rhythm(neither did Duran).