To me Dan's issue with the top tier isn't age...yet, its the evolution of the sport catching up with some of the older guys. Guys like Chuck, Hughes, Fedor and Dan have not evolved their skill set as the sport has become less and less wrestler vs striker and more and more well rounded fighters that can fight anywhere on the mat. Plus Dan's Greco wrestling is not the same as Chael's freestyle. Randy was very effective at using the Greco to put guys on the fence and beat on them but I don't see Dan use it nearly as effective. I think its better to break down the top tier guys individuall and how Dan matches up.

Rampage - tremendous athleticism, decent wrestling and pretty good striking (handspeed/power). I just don't think Dan is going to be able to dictate where this fight happens and barring landing that one killer punch is going to get outworked in the standup. Rampage's biggest issue seems motivation. I haven't seen the killer that took Chuck's title in a while.

Rashad - Great wrestling, good handspeed and power but seems to tire in fights and lacks the top tier jaw to bang with powerful strikers. Since the Lyoto debacle Rashad has returned to his wrestling roots and stopped trying to KO everyone and it resulted in a good but uneventful win over Jackson. Logic says that if Shields can consistently take down Dan then Rashad should as well but I'm not sold completely on this. None the less I think at some point Dan can force Rashad to stand and fight, particularly in a 5 rounder and knock him out.

Rua - This guy's gas tank just isn't at the Pride level anymore. He isn't going to challenge Dan in the wrestling department. I think this is another fight wear Dan is going to weather an early storm by Rua and grind out a late UD or TKO.

Tito - Well we will learn alot after the fight tonight. I am reserving judgement until we see if the Bader fight was a flash in the pan or if he has re-invented himself. That being said a fight between these two would be a real grind it out event. I don't see Tito getting iced but I see this fight looking alot like the Chuck battles just with no stoppage. Historically speaking if Tito couldn't put you on your back he wasn't going to win.

Jones - He blasts Hendo out in 2 rounds. To dynamic, athletic and hungry.

Machida - always well prepared. Good cardio, very hard to take down and difficult to connect. The more I think about this fight the more I lean heavily to Machida. I just don't see Dan solving the standup of Machida or getting him down.

Forrest - I think Griffin is good at just about everything but not great at any one thing. I think Griffin wins this by outworking Dan. Lands smashing leg kicks, uses great foot work and wins a UD by mixing in the occasional take down.