Pavlik Vs Taylor 2, Bilbo's rbr

[Kev]

Ok guys it seems that with Wacko gone a void has opened up with nobody covering the Pavlik Taylor fight. I've volunteered for the job and suprisingly been accepted so here goes my first rbr attempt.

Ok I know Wacko usually preempts his rbr with an introduction to both fighters so I will follow suit.

First up, Kelly Pavlik

Kelly Pavlik

With back to back knockouts of both the universally recognised number 1 contender, and the universally recognised middleweight champ Pavlik went from zero to hero in 2007. He literally burst onto the boxing scene and his calm demenour, humble working class background and simple, slightly punchy sounding drawl he is about as close to a real life Rocky Balboa as you're likely to find in boxing right now.

Nicknamed the ghost, you would assume he would be an elusive target yet he gets hit as often as a 300 lb ashmatic playing dodgeball. But he can also hit back....and hard so you know his fights are guaranteed to be exciting. Certainly no opponnent will have to come looking for Kelly Pavlik.

So far what we have seen from Kelly has been electric. Three devastating KO's against Zertuche, Miranda and Taylor have proven that Pavlik has the tools to dismantle any fighter. His star is shining brightly, his confidence must be sky high and surely his new found self belief will make him a comfortable betting favourite.

Jermain Taylor

Where does one begin with Jermain Taylor? When he dethroned Bernard Hopkins, albiet controversially it seemed a new star had emerged. Tall, lean, strong and athletic Taylor had all the physical tools and persona to be the next great middleweight champion. He was a p4p star, one of boxing's biggest new stars and a guy who most thought would be part of boxing's future.

Instead it seemed that with each successive fight he went backwards. A highly entertaining fight against fellow middleweight great Winky Wright saw him lucky to escape with a draw. No real shame in that, Wright was a great fighter and both men fought their hearts out. However with lackluster wins over opponents such as Kassim Ouma and a dreadful performance against former welterweight champ Cory Spinks saw Taylor become an object of derision.

His decision to switch trainers was a farcical failure. Emmanuel Steward seemed to dispair of Jermain in between rounds, it became embarrassing for either man to associated with the other. Taylor was showing no improvement and with each performance became more tense, more reluctant to engage.

When he defended against Pavlik, certainly Kelly Pavlik had the momemtum as well as the overwhelming crowd support.

Ironically Taylor put in his best performance to date against Pavlik and with a lesser referee than Steve Smoger in control he could well have won by sensational early knockout. Alas, he couldn't get it, he gassed, he got KTFO.


The Verdict

Ok the scene has been set, the rematch is all but ready to begin. Who wins and why? Well this is only my opinion of course but the odd's must be in Pavlik's favour.

Taylor seems to have made a series of increasingly bizarre decisions in the run up to this fight. First he got rid of Steward and went back to his longtime trainer Ozell Nelson. Nelson discovered Taylor and the two have a great bond. It was Pat Burns however who actually guided Jermain to the two world title fight victories over Bernard Hopkins, not Nelson.

More bizarrely he insisted this fight not take place at 160, for the middleweight title but rather at a catchweight of 166 for no title at all. If Pavlik loses, he's still the middleweight champ, Taylor will gain nothing other than the satisfaction of redemption.

There is also little doubt that Pavlik is the naturally bigger man. By insisting on a 6 lb weight increase Taylor has seemingly only boosted Pavlik's chances still further. He hurt him and finished him with a 160 lb frame, what can he do now he's allowed to fill out some more?

Finally it seems strange that Taylor would want to take this fight straight away. After a string of poor performances, culminating in a devastating knockout you would think Jermain would like the confidence booster of an easy fight. Not so, he seems to want to jump straight back into the fire.

I think this will be his undoing. He seems to be trying too hard, making too many changes and not thinking correctly. This will surely have an effect in the ring.

I expect Taylor to start strong early and be the aggressor. I don't expect it to work. I believe that once again around the middle rounds that Pavlik's greater size and power will have taken effect and here Taylor will face a choice.

Will he go for broke like last time and risk ending up staring at the ceiling, or will he do what so many fighters have done in the past when faced with similar circumnstances resign himself to a loss and choose to try and survive, taking solace in the fact that his conquerer couldn't take him out again.

We've seen this with Roy Jones and Marco Antonio Barrera in recent fights and I think we will see this with Jermain. If he decides to fight to the death then it will be another Pacquaio Morales 3 style fight.....in my opinion at least.

My final verdict then is a comfortable points win for Pavlik with Taylor happy to survive.