No comments regarding Tomasz adamek vs kevin mcbride???

[therealremi]

I'm done.

Apparently Vitali is regarded as the greatest heavyweight champion of all time on this forum. To beat him is nothing short of beating God himself...

All I've tried to argue is that Adamek has a 30% chance of upsetting the fucker, yet we have people on here thinking he has a 2% chance or no chance. Its pretty sad to see "boxing fans" think this way.

They say 2%? So would they bet a considerable amount of money on Vitali given the pay out multiplier would be 1.02 ? I would very much like to see that.

[Kev]

I'm done.

Apparently Vitali is regarded as the greatest heavyweight champion of all time on this forum. To beat him is nothing short of beating God himself...

All I've tried to argue is that Adamek has a 30% chance of upsetting the fucker, yet we have people on here thinking he has a 2% chance or no chance. Its pretty sad to see "boxing fans" think this way.

No way does he have a 30% chance. That's like saying if they fought 3 times he'd almost certainly win one of them.

Where does his chance come from? I don't think Vitali has ever been dropped in his career and his chin has been proven solid. Adamek has little power anway, amply demonstrated by the fact that he couldn't even stop Kevin Mcbride. That is terrible. Mcbrides last win was against Tyson and even that was because Tyson was so ashamed of how far he had fallen he decided to stop fighting rather than suffer the indignity of struggling to knock out such a bum as Mcbride, I mean really what an awful way to win a fight, when your opponent retires and quits boxing because he's so depressed he hasn't knocked you out in 5 rounds!!!

Since that 'heroic' win Mcbride has lost every fight and has been KO'd a bunch of times. This useless fighter who boxrec don't even have in the top 100 in the division went the distance with Adamek. That's about as bad as it gets.

So I think we can rule out Adamek scoring a shock KO.

So how about outboxing him? Well Vitali has NEVER been behind on the scorecards. His only defeats are when he dislocated his shoulder in a fight he was winning easily and when he was stopped on cuts in a fight he was edging by on the greatest heavyweights of all time.

So Adamek's chances of outpointing him are also slim.

Let's do the maths and break this down scientifically.

Vitali has had 42 fights winning 40.

In all those fights he has never been behind on the cards, ever.

So Adameks chances of boxing him to a decision must be 1 in 42 I guess. He would be the only one.

Vitali has had one freak injury in his career, so another 1 in 41 chance.

He was also stopped on cuts by the greatest heavy arguably since Ali and Foreman. I would give Adamak .5 out of 42 chance of doing that.

So 2.5 out of 42 would be a fair estimate of his chances.

That would be 5 out of 84 plus another 1 to make it out of 100.

Mathematically he has a 6% chance of winning.

[El Kabong]

I don't mean to disparage Adamek by saying he just has a 2% chance of beating Vitali.....I just look at Adamek's skill set, his relative lack of power, and his lack of defense and for me all signs point to Vitali winning by stoppage.

I've got nothing but respect for Adamek, but it'll be a fucking miracle if he lasts the distance much less wins...he'll be fighting a guy who can box and who has an 88% KO ratio and who has never been behind on the scorecards and has never been down in his entire career. Its just long odds for Adamek is all.

[Kev]

I don't mean to disparage Adamek by saying he just has a 2% chance of beating Vitali.....I just look at Adamek's skill set, his relative lack of power, and his lack of defense and for me all signs point to Vitali winning by stoppage.

I've got nothing but respect for Adamek, but it'll be a fucking miracle if he lasts the distance much less wins...he'll be fighting a guy who can box and who has an 88% KO ratio and who has never been behind on the scorecards and has never been down in his entire career. Its just long odds for Adamek is all.

I worked it out mathematically above you. It's a 6% chance.

Hulk is completely wrong on this. If the odds of a fight were 70/30 then how did Vitali win 40 of 42 fights? With 70/30 odds he would have 3 losses for every 10 fights so he'd have been beaten 12 times by now.

[Mars_ax]

A little bit over 4 years ago Adamek was still fighting at Light-Heavyweight, less then 2 years ago he was still fighting at Crusierweight. Adamek is a small HW now, or basically a blown up Cruiserweight, he weighed 215 lbs. for the McBride fight, he's a little over 6'1", and has a 75" reach. Compared to Vitali, who usually weighs around 250 lbs. for his fights, has an 80" reach and is over 6'7" tall, Adamek will look small.

My point? Adamek has big cojones for taking this fight, but he has absolutely no chance of winning, and will likely get KTFO.

[therealremi]

I worked it out mathematically above you. It's a 6% chance.

LOL, mathematically
So, let's say Vitali is so superhuman (and don't age) that with any contender he has 94% chance of winning. Outcome of his next fight is independent from previous fights' outcomes. Fight with Adamek will be his 11-th fight since his last defeat. This means that the probability of him winning with Adamek is 50%. Mathematically.

[Hulk]

I don't mean to disparage Adamek by saying he just has a 2% chance of beating Vitali.....I just look at Adamek's skill set, his relative lack of power, and his lack of defense and for me all signs point to Vitali winning by stoppage.

I've got nothing but respect for Adamek, but it'll be a fucking miracle if he lasts the distance much less wins...he'll be fighting a guy who can box and who has an 88% KO ratio and who has never been behind on the scorecards and has never been down in his entire career. Its just long odds for Adamek is all.

I worked it out mathematically above you. It's a 6% chance.

Hulk is completely wrong on this. If the odds of a fight were 70/30 then how did Vitali win 40 of 42 fights? With 70/30 odds he would have 3 losses for every 10 fights so he'd have been beaten 12 times by now.

Well I'm sorry to break this to our resident Saddoboxing Einstein, BUT Vitali has not fought 42 Adameks. Adamek represents one of Vitali's best opponents to date, and certainly his best opponent since his comeback.

Thus I give the man a 30% chance of beating Vitali.

Its all opinion, and subjective, NOT MATHEMATICAL.

[Gandalf]

I agree with Hulk. Adamek is a clear underdog, but a live one. He can potentially cause a lot of difficulties for Vitali. 2% is just pure bias. 30% is being more realistic. Adamek is a top 5 heavyweight and works hard over the distance. It isn't easy to win rounds against him.

I am looking forward to this fight as it is a very good matchup. Adamek has done it the right way at HW and is ready for this. He hasn't just gone in there calling the shots, he has been tuning his skills and gradually fighting bigger men. Now it's time for the big one.

[CFH]

Can someone explain to me, using specifics, how a fighter like Adamek (who is a relatively mediocre heavyweight) could cause even a 40 year old Vitali Klitschko problems? I just don't see how it's possible. Adamek is too small, he has next to no power, he can't outjab Vitali, and he can't outbox him, and I think he's chinny as a HW. How can he win?

[Hulk]

I agree with Hulk. Adamek is a clear underdog, but a live one. He can potentially cause a lot of difficulties for Vitali. 2% is just pure bias. 30% is being more realistic. Adamek is a top 5 heavyweight and works hard over the distance. It isn't easy to win rounds against him.

I am looking forward to this fight as it is a very good matchup. Adamek has done it the right way at HW and is ready for this. He hasn't just gone in there calling the shots, he has been tuning his skills and gradually fighting bigger men. Now it's time for the big one.

Thank You sir.

Ever the cool headed voice of reason you are. Coming to my aid once again.

[Kev]

I don't mean to disparage Adamek by saying he just has a 2% chance of beating Vitali.....I just look at Adamek's skill set, his relative lack of power, and his lack of defense and for me all signs point to Vitali winning by stoppage.

I've got nothing but respect for Adamek, but it'll be a fucking miracle if he lasts the distance much less wins...he'll be fighting a guy who can box and who has an 88% KO ratio and who has never been behind on the scorecards and has never been down in his entire career. Its just long odds for Adamek is all.

I worked it out mathematically above you. It's a 6% chance.

Hulk is completely wrong on this. If the odds of a fight were 70/30 then how did Vitali win 40 of 42 fights? With 70/30 odds he would have 3 losses for every 10 fights so he'd have been beaten 12 times by now.

Well I'm sorry to break this to our resident Saddoboxing Einstein, BUT Vitali has not fought 42 Adameks. Adamek represents one of Vitali's best opponents to date, and certainly his best opponent since his comeback.

Thus I give the man a 30% chance of beating Vitali.

Its all opinion, and subjective, NOT MATHEMATICAL.

Adamek is not a great opponent in an absolute sense. He's done tremendously 'for a light heavyweight moving up' but if you judge him as a heavyeight irrespective of his size he hasn't done a lot at all. He's had one decent fight where, in a real struggle, he outboxed an injured Chris Arreola, in his other heavyweight fights he has looked pretty poor to be honest.

No man who gets taken 12 rounds by Kevin Mcbride would ever have a shot at beating Vitali Klitschko. This is a guy who has lost his last 6 fights or so and not won a fight in 5 years!

It wasn't that long ago that Adamek was losing to Chad Dawson. The idea that he could give Vitali a competitive fight is lunacy.

And calling Miles the cool headed, voice of reason........

[therealremi]

Elaborating the mathematics.
If we assume the probability of Vitali winning on any given evening as the ratio of his 2 lost fights to the total of his 44 fights, that will yield 0.954 probability. Thereby he will accomplish his 11 wins streak with the probability of 0.599.
However, it would make more sense if we subtracted from his record the 13 fights against opponents who at that time had at least half as many defeats as wins in their record, because they clearly not represent the world title contender level. (Jose Ribalta or Julius Francis or Troy Roberts still contribute to his record). That would give us the probability of him winning equal to 0.935. Thereby he will accomplish his 11 wins streak with the probability of 0.480.

[JazMerkin]

I'd give Adamek about a 5% shot at winning, but I just can't see it. Hell, I can at least see how people can see Haye beating the brothers, he has power, speed & is actually a better boxer than Adamek. The only thing that I'd give Adamek over Haye is that he has more durability, but realistically I think he'd get caught against any of them and wouldn't hold up to their power.

The fact he couldn't beat McBride more decisively than Zack Page (yes that's recent Tyson Fury victim Zack Page people) tells me that Vitali will almost certainly stop him in the middle rounds. I think the only guys with a shot at beating the brothers are Haye, Povetkin & maybe Solis if his knee doesn't fall apart & he hasn't been on the KFC nutritional programme, but my expectation is that the bros would beat & stop all other guys presently in the division.

Although I have to admit that Bilbo's 'statistical revelation' is probably the most stupid thing I've seen on Saddo's today

[Rantcatrat]

Can someone explain to me, using specifics, how a fighter like Adamek (who is a relatively mediocre heavyweight) could cause even a 40 year old Vitali Klitschko problems? I just don't see how it's possible. Adamek is too small, he has next to no power, he can't outjab Vitali, and he can't outbox him, and I think he's chinny as a HW. How can he win?

Well, here is what Adamek's people are thinking: Adamek uses the whole ring and moves a lot all around it. Adamek has practiced moving in and getting out against his heavyweight opponents while dancing around the ring for each round. He doesn't knock his heavyweight opponents down, but he throws more punches and lands more punches than they do on average each round. He'll try and make this a boring fight. He'll plan to box Vitali for 12 rounds and hope the giant loses a step in the middle to late rounds and then he can begin to win some of the rounds on points. I wouldn't be super surprised if he lost the fight in a 116-112 kind of manner.

[ninjaspy3]

Can someone explain to me, using specifics, how a fighter like Adamek (who is a relatively mediocre heavyweight) could cause even a 40 year old Vitali Klitschko problems? I just don't see how it's possible. Adamek is too small, he has next to no power, he can't outjab Vitali, and he can't outbox him, and I think he's chinny as a HW. How can he win?

Well, here is what Adamek's people are thinking: Adamek uses the whole ring and moves a lot all around it. Adamek has practiced moving in and getting out against his heavyweight opponents while dancing around the ring for each round. He doesn't knock his heavyweight opponents down, but he throws more punches and lands more punches than they do on average each round. He'll try and make this a boring fight. He'll plan to box Vitali for 12 rounds and hope the giant loses a step in the middle to late rounds and then he can begin to win some of the rounds on points. I wouldn't be super surprised if he lost the fight in a 116-112 kind of manner.

I can see the logic behind that thinking. I guess in that case the big question would be, will Vitali's age finally bring down his boxing skills to the point where Adamek can find some room to work out a win on points. It will be a rough night for Adamek. You can tell he gives it everything he's got due to the sheer size difference of the guys in his last 2 fights, because at the end it looks like he is just about drained because of keeping up that high work rate and having these larger guys leaning on him throughout the fight.