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by Kenneth Bouhairie
FightBeat.com Feature Writer
I've been racking my brain for weeks trying to figure out why I feel so strongly, but I no longer can suppress it: my fistic intuition brings me to this possibly embarrassing conclusion: Bernard Hopkins will stop Antonio Tarver on June 10th.
There, I said it. Give reasons, you say? Oh, I can do that. Here are ten why boxing's old sage will walk away with his biggest victory against a younger, bigger adversary.
10. Bernard Hopkins is bigger than you think.
Sure, he normally weighs-in a couple pounds under 160, and has even come close to making the junior middleweight limit. Don't let that confuse you. Hopkins has entered the ring weighing above 170 several times, and it hasn't hindered him in any way. Case in point: Against Keith Holmes, he was 172 on fight night. Despite the extra twelve pounds, B-Hop retained his speed, tossing the timid Holmes around the ring like a rag doll. At this advanced age, the extra weight may be just what the doctor ordered. Hopkins' frame can pack it on easy, and with renowned fitness guru Mackie Shilstone in his corner, his skills won't suffer. Besides, he doesn't have to go all the way up to 175 -- 169-170 is where he'll want to be against his slower opponent.
9. Stamina
Like Roy Jones Jr. Hopkins is a master of the mental chess match in the ring. Who can forget how Tarver, despite barely getting hit, was breathing like a woman-in- labor in the championship rounds against Jones last October? The mental back-‘n’-forth can take as much a toll as the fistic one. Hopkins has been celebrated for his inhuman endurance that allowed him to convincingly win the championship rounds against Jones and Jermain Taylor twice. Tarver, on the other hand, struggled against Roy and Glen Johnson in the later rounds. Having gone up to 215 for his role in the upcoming Rocky film, chances are his stamina will be even worse.
8. Tarver’s no spring chicken either.
Throw age out the window. All the talk has been of how, at 41, Hopkins has begun slipping in recent bouts. Maybe so, but how much does Tarver have left? Sure he's fought half the number The Executioner has professionally, but five months away from turning 38, and with an extensive amateur career, Tarver’s in the waning days of his career as well.
7. The Letdown
Has Tarver finally learned his lesson? Years of half-assing it in the gym led to his jaw being broken and a loss to Eric Harding. Declaring it would never happen again, Tarver hired "Buddy" McGirt and re-dedicated himself. The result: his memorable KO of Jones. Seven months later, Tarver -- admittedly not in the best shape -- was out-hustled and lost to Glen Johnson. Although he avenged that loss, the pattern’s clear. After defeating Jones for a second straight time, hobnobbing with Jay Leno and playing a major role in a film, what’re the chances it’ll happen again?
6. Styles Make Fights
Despite being a natural counter-puncher, Tarver’s struggled when pressed up the middle. Eric Harding, Glen Johnson, and even Jones, at times, had success backing him up, keeping him on the defensive. While Hopkins has been more selective with his punches in recent years, he’s always picked up the pace in the latter rounds. Not to mention, he'll be entering the ring in Atlantic City with a 9-0 record against southpaws. Hopkins has the style, temperament and ring intelligence to defeat Tarver. If he comes out a little more active in the earlier rounds, maybe my TKO prediction doesn't sound so bad.
5. Roy Jones Jr.
Hopkins never got his chance at redemption against Jones. Tarver did. What better way for B-Hop to redeem that 13-year-old loss and one-up Roy than beat the man who beat him? You better believe that's one of the reasons Hopkins took this fight over Joe Calzaghe, for instance.
4. The Lead Right Hand
Or the ‘Penitentiary Right,’ as it's more fondly called. That single shot has been Hopkins' calling card. It's the punch he used to bedevil Felix Trinidad five years ago. Jermain Taylor was rocked by it repeatedly in their two fights. It's also a southpaw's nightmare. Tarver and Hopkins have the same reach, and only one inch separates them in height. Expect the former middleweight champion to make good use of that right.
3. Motivation
For the first time in his career, Hopkins will enter the ring with all he's ever wanted. Not only is he a huge underdog -- a role he relishes-- for the first time since he beat Tito, he may be the crowd favorite, something he's longed for but never gotten. On June 10th, against a heavy-handed opponent many expect to bowl him over, Hopkins will have all the motivation he needs to win in historic fashion. What better way to cap-off a storied career than to leap fifteen pounds and knock off the only man who may talk a better game than you do? Or to prove that you didn't earn twenty title defenses by beating on mediocre middleweights and blown up welters? Hopkins wants to go out on a high note after his controversial losses to Taylor. He'll be up for this bout.
2. Bernard Hopkins is the Better Fighter
Put weight aside, pound-for-pound, Hopkins is just better. He's smarter, has better boxing skills, better defense and is one the most well conditioned fighters in the world, even at 41. Regardless of the opponent, B-Hop has always found a way to negate their best weapon. Against Jones, he smothered his fast combinations on the inside. He took away the left hook from Tito. The jab from Taylor. Against a slower fighter like Tarver, a fighter who throws few punches with conviction per round, Hopkins will have plenty of time to operate and out-think him. The extra weight will only add power to a fighter who rarely uses power to win a fight.
1. Because the Light Heavyweight Champion Should be Pretty
Like Bernard Hopkins. Well, maybe not as analogous as Cassius Clay against Sonny Liston, but Hopkins is convinced. It's easy to overlook what he's done and how he did it. Many called him a fool for refusing a 60-40 split against Jones a few years ago. Some called him far worse when he ducked a James Toney bout.
Jones is now fighting in Idaho. We can only hope Toney isn't consoling himself at Arby’s after his lethargic performance against Hasim Rahman. Hopkins, in that time, has collected an eight-figure payday against Oscar De La Hoya, ran his record-defenses to twenty, and will now be moving up to face an opponent who may be far easier than a 2002 Jones or a cruiserweight Toney. And this time, he's the fan favorite.
Perhaps it's destiny, after all. Or, to quote an old Geto Boys track, ‘my mind is playing tricks on me.’ We'll soon find out.
K's KO of the Week
The talk this past week has revolved around the rejuvenation of Diego "Chico" Corrales. The rib injury that pushed his rubber match versus Jose Luis Castillo to this Saturday has helped the two-division champion recharge the batteries Castillo zapped last October. Castillo didn't look too hot himself against Rolando Reyes four months ago. It’s led many to believe Corrales will have the upper hand at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
Charged batteries or not, Corrales will get re-acquainted with the canvas if he doesn't use his underrated boxing skills against an inside machine like Castillo. Chico had success in the first bout during those moments when he took a couple steps back, used his jab as a yardstick and fired combinations behind it. If he's able to do that Saturday night, he could win in stunning fashion, especially if Castillo has spent most of his camp just trying to get his weight down.
The guess here is: he won't. Against a man who’ll be coming at him all night, Corrales' natural instinct will be to fight fire with fire. And that will be his undoing.
Castillo TKO10.
Mayweather-Margarito?
With Oscar De La Hoya weighing all options for his farewell in September and Ricky Hatton likely to go back to junior welterweight, reigning pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. has few options for a high-interest bout at 147lbs. Unless he decides to bite-the-bullet and face WBO champion Antonio Margarito.
It's a match "Pretty Boy" seems reluctant to take but may have to in order to fulfill his fall Pay-Per-View date. Margarito is the new generation's Felix Trinidad, minus some of the boxing skills and with, if possible, even more tenacity. Unlike past opponents who folded under Mayweather's precise punching, Margarito will stay in his face, as he did against Danny Perez, after suffering an early-round knockdown that would've led many to call it a night. Those who've sustained pressure on Mayweather-- regardless of incoming -- have had spot success. Emanuel Augustus was able to bloody Floyd up a bit and make him fight for the full three minutes each round doing just that. Castillo had success with that as well. Margarito would make the punches that land on Mayweather's elbows and shoulders hurt. And that may be the difference.
If Margarito is unable to secure a bout against the world's top fighter, I'd like to see him against Joshua Clottey. Clottey, like "Tono," has had trouble finding a willing opponent for the same reasons. Both of these guys stand and fight, with no concerns for incoming. With their size and strength, a Margarito-Clottey match has the makings of welterweight classic.
But Antonio has too much to lose to take this fight right now. With so many anointing him the people's champion, despite an almost barren resume, he'll likely face a soft tune-up while he awaits a call from one of the bigger moneymakers. And who could blame him? I'd do the same for half the paycheck.
That writer knows what he's talking about Does this sway wacko finally?
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