Originally Posted by
SweetPea
I'll start out my preview by looking at a couple different myths that exist regarding this fight.
The biggest myth entering this fight is the supposed huge advantage of size and power enjoyed by De La Hoya.
1. Many people are forgetting that DLH started his career at roughly the same weight as Mayweather. DLH started out fighting at ~133, before dropping down to 130 to win his first title at junior lightweight, which is the same weight class at which Mayweather won his first title. DLH made stops at 135-140-147, just like Mayweather has done.
2. DLH does not enjoy a significant natural size advantage. DLH is not a very big boned fighter in his own right. While he has fought at 160, 154 is really the highest class that he could fight naturally in. Also, if you look at the tale of the tapes for DLH and Mayweather, you would see that the differences are not substantial, any advantages are rather small, and in fact their reaches are equal at 72".
3. DLH is an overrated puncher. There, I said it. DLH has never been a lethal puncher above 140 pounds. This is a fact. With the exception of Vargas (who despite being tremendously brave, has a very suspect chin), DLH has not shown the ability to hurt elite fighters at either 147 or 154. Even his TKO of Vargas was the result of 10+ rounds of working the body and breaking Vargas down. His performance against Mayorga was very impressive, however Mayorga was coming off a performance where he had eaten about 500 power shots from Tito and was damaged goods IMO.
Make no mistake about it, DLH will be the hardest puncher that Mayweather has ever faced, but he is not an explosive puncher.
Another myth is that DLH is washed up or rusty.
I don't see this at all. DLH is 33, and while he has certainly been in tons of big fights, he hasn't been in a huge amount of "wars," the kinds of fights that take something out of a fighter that never returns. He hasn't absorbed a huge amount of punishment, and therefore he is fresher than many 33 year old fighters. Also, I think his inactivity over the last several years may have actually kept him fresh. He hasn't been beaten down by numerous tough fights over the last few years. Also, DLH has always shown the ability to be sharp despite long layoffs. He had not fought in over 400 days when he faced Vargas, and he turned in one of his best performances. He had been off for 20 months when he fought Mayorga, and looked great from the opening bell. This fight will not be won by the younger fighter or the fresher fighter, it will be about who is the better fighter.
Boxing fans love to talk about power, and they love to talk about size and weight, but boxing is about one thing above everything else: speed. Always has been, always will be. Mayweather is the fastest fighter on the planet, no one will dispute this.
I think a key for him is to not come in too heavy for this fight. There's always a chance that weight can slow down a fighter. I think Floyd is smart enough to know that just because the limit is 154, that doesn't mean he HAS to come in at 154. If 150 is the weight he feels best at, then that's the weight he should fight at. If he wins, he's going to win because of speed and movement, so whatever weight allows him to be his fastest is the weight he should fight at.
Bottom line:
I've said for years that there are only three ways that Mayweather will lose a fight.
1. He gets old and loses his speed and reflexes: He'll only be 30 on fight night, this doesn't apply yet.
2. He moves up too far in weight and gets caught by one punch from an enormous puncher: As I already explained, DLH is not a dynamic puncher at this weight, I don't believe he has the power to beat Mayweather with 1 or 2 shots.
3. He gets in the ring with an exceptionally tall and long fighter who can swarm him, similar to what Forrest did to Mosley: DLH doesn't fit this profile either, he isn't significantly bigger than Mayweather and their reaches are equal.
I like Mayweather by a unanimous, but relatively close decision. 116-112 was my initial prediction, and I'm sticking with it. Mayweather is too fast and he will land consistently enough to win the majority of the rounds. DLH will always be in the fight, but I don't think he has the power to turn the tide of the fight with one punch.
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