Why Floyd will beat Manny

[holmcall]

A Good BIG MAN Will Always Beat A Good SMALL MAN –A GREAT big man will always beat a GREAT small man.
–Various sources

We’d break him down and beat him up…Floyd can’t break an egg; he’s fragile. He hurts his hands all the time. He has speed, but if he lays on the ropes and rolls his shoulders, we’ll take everything he gives us.
–Roach


Lil Floyd would whoop (him), but to tell you the truth, I don’t think he should fight him…That would be my advice to him.
–Mayweather Sr

Hopefully, no one will take Floyd Senior’s advice and these two will fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on March 13, 2010 in what promises to be another great match between two superstars—this one at a catch weight with a penalty clause. Mayweather 40-0 while Pacquiao is 50-3-2. The fight is expected to be the richest ever, with both fighters earning $30 million to $40 million, depending on television sales. Let’s break it down:

1) The corners: Pretty much a wash though Roach is as savvy as there is, but Roger knows how to work with his nephew.

2) The styles: Somewhat made for each other, Pac Man is the aggressor who will take a punch to deliver one and is a brutal closer. He has an offensive whirlwind type in the tradition of Aaron Pryor while Floyd Jr. is a more “pick you spots” type of technician who is a tactical defender and employs a great elusive ability. Blessed with speed, stamina, power, sharp punching, a solid chin and great defense, he is undefeated and at the top of his game. As a “purist,” I find his level of all around skills not only uncommonly high, but exciting to watch as well.

Pacquiao now seems to possess an arsenal the qualitative content and completeness of which only Floyd can stake claim to. With his in-and-out movement, effective jabs, fight-ending hooks from both hands, solid stamina, and a sound defense, there is little to criticize.

3) Ring IQ: Both are savvy and experienced fighters, but I believe Mayweather has an ever-so-slight edge as he can adapt to different situations a bit faster.

4) Level of Opposition:

Manny has fought 10 fights against 6 guys who arguably have a solid shot at being inducted into the Hall of Fame. But he also fought and beat fine other fighters with great records coming in. If you throw a dart at his list of opponents, you might, for example, hit Australian Nedal Hussein (43-5), South Korean Seung-Kon Chae (23-0), Thai Chatchai Sasakul (65-4), Mexican Oscar Larios (56-4-1), Thai Wethya Sakmuangklang (41-3), or Colombian Jorge Eliecer Julio (44-3).

Some of PBF’s victims include Emanuel Augustus, Carlos Baldomir, Arturo Gatti, Phillip N’dou, DeMarcus Corley, Genaro Hernandez, Zab Judah, Jose Luis Castillo (twice), Jesus Chavez, Ricky Hatton, Oscar De La Hoya, Juan Manuel Marquez, and, of course, Diego Corrales.

Edge to Manny

5) Common opponents

Both sent Ricky Hatton into Manchester dreamland, but Juan Manuel Marquez gave Pacquiao fits while Mayweather schooled and dominated him. Of course, the opposite happened with De La Hoya. Distinct and important edge to Mayweather here

6) Intangibles

Chin: Manny has been hurt badly but it occurred too far back to be meaningful in my view. Floyd has never really been in dire straits. He has a reliable chin and a great defense that keeps that chin from being tested very often.

Cuts: Manny is more prone to cuts than Floyd who gets the edge here.

Momentum: Pac Man gets the clear nod. He is on a great streak of big wins (Cotto, Hatton, De La Hoya, Diaz, Marquez, Barrera, Solis, Morales, and Larios).
However, Floyd’s body is well rested and his win over Juan Manuel Marquez did nothing to strain it.

Pre-fight “juicing” fiasco: It’s just that, a manufactured fiasco that will have no impact on the outcome of this fight. Indeed, it’s mostly hype intended to build interest in this mega-rich fight.

Catch Weight and dimensions: Favor PBF, but Pac Man has never let that be an issue before. Still, 5‘8“, 72“ reach vs. 5‘61/2,“ 67“ reach is a big, big advantage

Outcome

My hearts says Pac Man; my brain (and therefore wallet) says Mayweather.

Look, Floyd dominated the guy who gave Pac Man fits, and is naturally bigger and will enter the ring even bigger. I still cannot forget the difference in size between Mayweather and Marquez.

More importantly, when Pac Man beat De La Hoya, Oscar was a shadow of his former self who could not pull the trigger and everyone knew it. He was not the same Oscar who lost to Mayweather. Hatton already had been demolished by PBF and then badly hurt by Juan Lazcano. He was ripe. As for Cotto, many thought the “Ghost of Margo” would play a role–and it did indeed. Cotto was damaged goods by the time Manny got to him. Call it luck, call it master opponent selection by Roach, or even call it cherry picking, it is what it is. Of course, when it comes to picking opponents, PBF does pretty well himself as he seems to retire more often than he fights.

But in the final analysis, I simple cannot see Manny penetrating the elusive defensive tactics of PBF which will include shoulder rolls, strategic clinching (read: holding), spinning, sharp counter punching, and lots of movement. Of course, Manny will not emulate Hatton and allow Mayweather to pot shot him. No one can do that to Manny. Instead, I see what could become a boring tactical match in which Mayweather will do just enough to earn a Majority or Split Decision in a disappointing fight.

However, if Manny can get Floyd to engage in meaningful exchanges, he might have his best chance to land punches from unusual angles. But he needs a willing partner to do his best work. Cotto and Hatton were willing partners.

I hope I’m wrong. I will be rooting for Manny, but………… Mayweather is neither Cotto nor Hatton.

[generalbulldog]

Very good analysis. But do you think ring rust will come into play for this fight, especially for Mayweather? For he would be only fighting for the 2nd time in about 27 months. And if I"m not mistaken FLoyd will be 33 when the fight happens, if it does happens. And your reflexes dont' actually get better when one is in their 30s, even the great Pernell Whitaker's reflexes were slipping when he was in his early 30s.

And yes the performance Floyd put on JMM was masterful, but that JMM was 36 and jumping 2 weight classes, imo he looked very slow and sluggish.

I still slightly favor Floyd, but I do think it will be a competitive fight. And I have a feeling a controversial split decision can go into anyone's favor.

Just my 2 cents.

[SRR]

Most of what you have said is accurate, although there are a few things I disagree with.

That bigger man stuff isn't relevant; the issue for Pac won't be a size difference, but the fact Floyd is simply a stylistic nightmare for him, just as Marquez was [only the nightmare will be exacerbated by greater handspeed/upper body movement/reflexes]. In the same vein, it wasn't the fact Floyd was bigger than him that ruined Marquez in their fight, it was the fact he couldn't carry the weight [he became sluggish] and PBF was lightning quick at his natural weight. I think you're pretty much spot on about everything else, though, including the way the fight is likely to play out.

[levi#1BoxingFan]

I dont think the Marquez fight is as relevant as everyone is making it out to be. Pacquiao has improved much since those fights (naturally I believe). Just because they're are both counter punchers doesn't make JMM and Mayweather alike in styles.

[Howlin Mad Missy]

the relevant thing is how Manny reacted to Cotto getting on his bike in their fight. Frustration.

Floyd isn't going to stand and fight against a puncher

[Taeth]

I think its hard for a rhythm based fighter to beat a guy like Mayweather who is really great at disrupting your rhythm.

[bestjabwins]

the relevant thing is how Manny reacted to Cotto getting on his bike in their fight. Frustration.

Floyd isn't going to stand and fight against a puncher

yep, manny wasn't too good at cutting the ring off against a mobile opponent. Seemed a bit bamboozled at times by the jab.

[miron_lang]

Very possible.

Only Juan Manuel Manuel Marquez was able to re compose after absorbing the early onslaught of Manny Pacquiao (1st 4 rounds) and its possible that Floyd can do it too.

but......Floyd has never been in the RING againts someone within equal of what he brought to the ring.( Offense, Defense, Heart etc etc. ) this is the fight for legacy IMO and if he can still adjust like juan did againts the 130lbs version after Pac connects then he wins it 115-113 or maybe 116-112.

[miron_lang]

the relevant thing is how Manny reacted to Cotto getting on his bike in their fight. Frustration.

Floyd isn't going to stand and fight against a puncher

Maybe because cotto wasnt running in the 1st half of the fight.


Againts Mayweather. pac would expect and try to chase the target from the opening bell.

[zhubin]

For me...size will not be a factor in this fight. What will, is the ability to adapt as the fight progresses. Manny had the clear physical advantage in his last three fights: better speed, stamina, athleticism. He will not have the same advantages against Floyd. Floyd can adapt and figure fighters out as well as anyone. Manny, for all of his improvements, still fights one way. I see Manny creating some excitement early with flurries...but by the middle of the fight...Floyd will do what Marquez did against Pac, only much better. Pac is still very hittable and still lunges off balance. He gets away with it against fighters that cannot match his speed. Floyd will match his speed and accurately counter him all night. Floyd on points.

[Howlin Mad Missy]

the relevant thing is how Manny reacted to Cotto getting on his bike in their fight. Frustration.

Floyd isn't going to stand and fight against a puncher

Maybe because cotto wasnt running in the 1st half of the fight.


Againts Mayweather. pac would expect and try to chase the target from the opening bell.

you don't chase you look to cut off the ring. It should be in every boxers basic toolkit. It made Manny look flat footed and Cotto like Ali

[hitmanhatton]

the relevant thing is how Manny reacted to Cotto getting on his bike in their fight. Frustration.

Floyd isn't going to stand and fight against a puncher

Maybe because cotto wasnt running in the 1st half of the fight.


Againts Mayweather. pac would expect and try to chase the target from the opening bell.

fact is , cotto frustrated pac later on in the fight once he had already slowed down just by backing up, pac was standing there tapping his gloves together, of course this wont be of any use against floyd ... he wont be drawn into a war