Saddoboxing Prediction Contest 14 (September 14-March 30)

[Tam Seddon]

Junior KO
Vera KO
Golovokin KO 6 *joker*
Bellew UD
Mathews KO 7
Rios KO 8
Crawford KO

Such a tough week to call, so many good fights to watch, but I've got my dissertation in for a week on Monday so I don't think I can watch many of the fights .

[superheavyrhun]

If you've not put your picks in yet, what the heck have you been doing? Wrapping this up for the last time this season. Next time I see you I'll be announcing my glorious victory in the prediction competition.

[OumaFan]

Comegalletas picks

Jackson Junior KO
Brian Vera KO
Gennady Golovkin KO Joker
Zsolt Erdei Dec
Tony Bellew KO Star
Anthony Crolla KO
Brandon Rios KO
Terence Crawford KO

[superheavyrhun]

Gest12645

Junior ko 5
vera ko 5
golovkin ko 9
erdei md
bellew ud *
Crolla ko 7
Rios ko 9 joker
crawford ud

[superheavyrhun]

Friday
Savigne KO4
Vera KO7


Saturday
Golovkin KO3
Bellew DRAW Chilemba STAR
Matthews DRAW Crolla
Alvarado UD
Crawford UD
Grachev SD


ruthless rocco 38
Cutmemick 36
Tigerfan 32
JimmyJones 30
Comegalletas 27
Yiddle 27
Tam Seddon 21
CFH 20
Superheavyrhun 19
Gest12645 14
Rantcatrat 13
brocktonblockbust 12
Fenster 12
Violent Demise 11
Otley 10


Let me just get on to adding these totals on to the final leaderboard. As unlikely as it was coming in to this week, I'd like to congratulate Cutmemick on winning the prediction contest.

[superheavyrhun]

Ha....Cutmemick....as if!

Congratulations to the real winner:

COMEGALLETAS

Another great season, and on behalf of the management I'd like to thank you all for playing and for providing a few players poor enough to make even Oumafan and I look like we might know a little something about predictions!

[CFH]

Ha....Cutmemick....as if!

Congratulations to the real winner:

COMEGALLETAS

Another great season, and on behalf of the management I'd like to thank you all for playing and for providing a few players poor enough to make even Oumafan and I look like we might know a little something about predictions!

2nd or 3rd win, right? Congrats.

[ruthless rocco]

congratulations Comegalletas!
congrats to the top 3!

thanks for all the hard work ouma and rhun!
i love the contest. i appreciate all the effort you put in week to week!

[YIDDLE]

Thanks to all who run this league for the time they put in and next season I will try to take part from the start

[gest12645]

congrats to the winner.

[JimmyJones]

Congrats Comegalletas and to all for a great competition.

Thanks to Ouma and Super for a job well done.

Although I'm not a veteran of this competition and I'm sure it's evolved quite a bit over time here are some observations that may or may not be useful for future comps:
- Number of points should be increased for ko round prediction and for one off ko round prediction (or decreased for UD and KO predictions)
Justification: Odds and fun factor. Let's be really generous and say that 50% of all fights (not counting draws) end in a KO/TKO. Usually the fights that we're predicting are between 10-12 rounds. Given that a KO is equally likely to happen in any 1 round then there's a 1/2*1/10 - 1/2*1/12 chance that a fight will end in KO in a given round or 1/20 - 1/24. However you'll only receive 18 points if you guess spot on. I looked it up and couldn't quickly find an average ko percentage but I imagine it's lower than 50% which makes the chances even slimmer (even lower once you work in draws) and the point to odd ratio even weaker. If we use the same 50% KO average then picking just KO gives you 8 points for a relatively 50/50 shot. For a long competition like this it means that picking KO rounds makes no sense at all (unless it's a mismatch heavyweight fight where first round KOs are more common). Increasing the one off KO round prediction mitigates this. Also predicting round KOs is a lot more fun and would be more tempting if the score matched the odds. Another possible solution to make this choice justifiable is to throw more mismatches into the mix for predictions as I've noticed most of the choices are close fights.

Thoughts on this one? More rambling suggestions to follow.

[ruthless rocco]

Congrats Comegalletas and to all for a great competition.

Thanks to Ouma and Super for a job well done.

Although I'm not a veteran of this competition and I'm sure it's evolved quite a bit over time here are some observations that may or may not be useful for future comps:
- Number of points should be increased for ko round prediction and for one off ko round prediction (or decreased for UD and KO predictions)
Justification: Odds and fun factor. Let's be really generous and say that 50% of all fights (not counting draws) end in a KO/TKO. Usually the fights that we're predicting are between 10-12 rounds. Given that a KO is equally likely to happen in any 1 round then there's a 1/2*1/10 - 1/2*1/12 chance that a fight will end in KO in a given round or 1/20 - 1/24. However you'll only receive 18 points if you guess spot on. I looked it up and couldn't quickly find an average ko percentage but I imagine it's lower than 50% which makes the chances even slimmer (even lower once you work in draws) and the point to odd ratio even weaker. If we use the same 50% KO average then picking just KO gives you 8 points for a relatively 50/50 shot. For a long competition like this it means that picking KO rounds makes no sense at all (unless it's a mismatch heavyweight fight where first round KOs are more common). Increasing the one off KO round prediction mitigates this. Also predicting round KOs is a lot more fun and would be more tempting if the score matched the odds. Another possible solution to make this choice justifiable is to throw more mismatches into the mix for predictions as I've noticed most of the choices are close fights.

Thoughts on this one? More rambling suggestions to follow.

i like making ko round picks but have learned that you can't win this competetion by making them. i'd be more inclined to make round picks if there were more points involved. in previous years a correct ko round pick got 25 or 30 points (if my memory is correct)... that made it a more exciting and unpredictable contest.

[Rantcatrat]

Congrats to the winner. Hats off to the moderators that ran the contest. I look forward to the next one.

[Tam Seddon]

I lost my third place in the final week o well, onto the next comp, when is it starting up??

[Fenster]

How many titles is that for @Comegalletas?

We might have to start handicapping this shit