Romney vs. BO - Saddo's kids race mongering thread

[Mars_ax]

Please either delete or move this hijacked thread to "let's get it on"

[VictorCharlie]

I'm hoping Gary Johnson gets at least 5% of the popular vote which is a long shot but hopefully we get a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The chaos will be epic.

[Youngblood]

Obama will win, with at least 300 of the electorate. He is just now pulling ahead in the popular vote in most of the best aggregates. But the election isn't decided by popular vote, it is decided state to state and tallied with the electoral college. And here is where Romney runs into deep trouble. He is behind in nearly every swing state with Obama already leading, and decisively. Most of the again, aggregates, have Romney's chances of winning the electoral at anywhere from 2-20%.

The two most successful firms in statistical analysis from the 08 election currently have Obama at a 86.5% and 97 % probability of a win.

But I agree with VC, a tie would be hilarious.

[Mars_ax]

Obama will win, with at least 300 of the electorate. He is just now pulling ahead in the popular vote in most of the best aggregates. But the election isn't decided by popular vote, it is decided state to state and tallied with the electoral college. And here is where Romney runs into deep trouble. He is behind in nearly every swing state with Obama already leading, and decisively. Most of the again, aggregates, have Romney's chances of winning the electoral at anywhere from 2-20%.

The two most successful firms in statistical analysis from the 08 election currently have Obama at a 86.5% and 97 % probability of a win.

But I agree with VC, a tie would be hilarious.

I agree, Romney winning would be a big upset, and the electoral college dictates who wins. If Romney wins i'm happy, if BO wins, i'll be one of his biggest critics the next 4 for years, as I watch the U.S. spiraling down the proverbial toilet bowl. Either way, i'll do just fine personally.

[Youngblood]

I don't think the economy would really have changed much either way, to be honest. All the magic potion stuff either is spewing towards the economy is just rhetoric for the most part. The US suffered a major recession because of mistakes from the past and is on the mend. The recovery has been slow, but that has been the nature of this recession and it aligns with how everyone who was affected by it in the world community is also recovering. In fact you guys are doing slightly better than most. You guys will be fine.

Just no more stupid wars for a bit, okay?

[Kirkland Laing]

if BO wins, i'll be one of his biggest critics the next 4 for years, as I watch the U.S. spiraling down the proverbial toilet bowl.

Are you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?

[El Kabong]

if BO wins, i'll be one of his biggest critics the next 4 for years, as I watch the U.S. spiraling down the proverbial toilet bowl.

Are you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?

Pssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should know

[VictorCharlie]

I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.

[Youngblood]

I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.

Yea, he's taking a lot of flack this week from the right ( I believe its based in fear tbh or just plain rhetoric), but for the most part there is no partisan bias in his model. It could very well fall apart on election night and we won't know until then. But that would pretty much be the end for him, and it would have been the dumbest thing ever for him to slant or bias his numbers.

edit to add: that basically, for it to be wrong, it would mean that all the polling firms are wrong, near every single one of them. his corrections in the weighting for bias is tended to be conservative in comparison to others. But hey, this is election time, so who knows, right? So we getting drunk Tuesday?

[VictorCharlie]

I saw this on his twitter today.

"We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1."

Seems a bit CYA to me. Oh and the Redskins lost so Romney is a shoe in.

[Mars_ax]

I'm hoping Gary Johnson gets at least 5% of the popular vote which is a long shot but hopefully we get a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The chaos will be epic.

That's funny Charlie, but hopefully we'll have a clear-cut winner before I hit the sack at 11:00 PM Tuesday night.

[TitoFan]

Lets get ready to rumble, most of the major TV networks here in the States will be covering the election Tuesday Nov. 6th, so take your pick.
For Romney to win the electoral college, he's going to have to get some key States going his way. I would imagine BO is the favorite, so if Romney wins, it would be a bit of an upset.

Obama and Romney Deadlocked, Polls Show - WSJ.com

Well..... there IS this:

US election: could Barack Obama fall victim to the Redskins Rule? - Telegraph




Damn Panthers!

[Kirkland Laing]

Virginia polls close at 7pn EST or midnight my time. The networks will call it based on exit polls a minute or two afterwards. If the networks call it for the Kenyan it's all over, if he wins there he's definitely won. The only thing thing that would stop it would be the GOP demanding a recount in a few states which could end up a big mess as most of the swing states have GOP governors.

[Kirkland Laing]

I'm going to go NObama 303 Romney 235. I may change that later if this guy changes his mind :

Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

[Youngblood]

I'm going to go NObama 303 Romney 235. I may change that later if this guy changes his mind :

Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history

Yea kirkland. When I mentioned the 2 aggregate firms most successful in the 08 election, the one other than 538( that is getting so much of the ink), that I was referring to is Dr. Sam Wang. He was the only one to do a better job than Nate in 08. His biggest criticism of the 538 model is it's potential conservatism.