Today in Trump

[Spicoli]

Oh so you just concluded without any evidence that he divulge nuclear secrets to a foreign national? That's what happens when people hate Trump so much that they just conclude that it must be true over and over from the Russian collusion hoax all the way now through divulging nuclear secrets to foreign Nationals 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Do you TDS people ever get tired of being wrong? Just curious. Do you have any self-awareness at all that you have been wrong about every single thing about Trump since the beginning?

No you have no self-awareness you just have TDS

Afraid all of his apple polishers have lost the carefree convenience of dismissing and branding calls for actual accountability "TDS". Fits his pattern, loud boastful careless and in possession of boxes of classified intel ffs . But don't let the reality that his billionaire fluffer and witnesses have been interviewed as part of current criminal investigations, felony indictments and a pending trial get in the way of all that laughter .

[Kirkland Laing]

Trump had to catch on eventually:

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/tr...-hidden-heels/

Won't allow me to read it what does it say?

[Kirkland Laing]

Oh so you just concluded without any evidence that he divulge nuclear secrets to a foreign national? That's what happens when people hate Trump so much that they just conclude that it must be true over and over from the Russian collusion hoax all the way now through divulging nuclear secrets to foreign Nationals ����������������� ��������

Do you TDS people ever get tired of being wrong? Just curious. Do you have any self-awareness at all that you have been wrong about every single thing about Trump since the beginning?

No you have no self-awareness you just have TDS

Afraid all of his apple polishers have lost the carefree convenience of dismissing and branding calls for actual accountability "TDS". Fits his pattern, loud boastful careless and in possession of boxes of classified intel ffs . But don't let the reality that his billionaire fluffer and witnesses have been interviewed as part of current criminal investigations, felony indictments and a pending trial get in the way of all that laughter .

This got my attention. Jack Smith says he can prove why Trump kept the top secret documents:

While arguing against the motion by Trump’s lawyers to delay the May 20 trial, special counsel Jack Smith’s lawyers assured they’re ready to go and that such a delay isn’t necessary, unsurprisingly. But they also said they are ready to prove something significant that, to this point, has remained shrouded and the subject of much speculation: why Trump allegedly took and kept the documents.




“That the classified materials at issue in this case were taken from the White House and retained at Mar-a-Lago is not in dispute,” Smith’s office said.


It then added that “what is in dispute is how that occurred, why it occurred, what Trump knew, and what Trump intended in retaining them — all issues that the Government will prove at trial primarily with unclassified evidence.”

The government apparently thinks it knows “what Trump intended” with the documents. And it’s signaling that it plans to prove that intent.





https://wapo.st/45lTR5W

[Kirkland Laing]

In case you’ve been understandably distracted from domestic news and have not followed the presidential race, it is not going very well for the Democrats. The RCP polling average now has Donald Trump leading President Biden by a point. If you recall, Biden beat Trump by four and a half points in 2020, and — because Trump fared especially well in the closest states — needed about four of those points to carry the Electoral College.
Some initial evidence has suggested that Trump’s Electoral College edge might be shrinking and that Biden’s popularity decline is occurring disproportionately in deep-blue states. But two new state polls suggest otherwise. A Michigan poll shows Trump leading Biden 42 to 35 percent. One in Pennsylvania has Trump leading 45 to 36 percent.
Yes, the election is a year away, and yes, polling this far out has limited value. But this is looking dire.
One finding both polls reflect is that the problem isn’t so much with the Democratic Party as a whole as it is with Biden specifically. In Pennsylvania, Democratic senator Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick 41 to 33 percent. The Michigan poll shows that Biden’s job-approval rating is 31-58, while Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s is a sterling 53-37. It also tests a Whitmer-Trump presidential race and finds Whitmer leading Trump 46 to 40 percent.
Now, you can’t exactly take these numbers at face value. If Whitmer were the Democrats’ presidential nominee, she would have to run in every state, not just Michigan (though Michigan, and the Midwest in general, is especially important).
Still, these numbers provide at least some evidence that Biden is now running behind, rather than ahead of, other members of his party. In 2020, Biden was a comforting callback to the popular Obama presidency. He had the ability to attract even voters concerned about the Democrats’ leftward drift. But whatever positive differentiation he had then has been swamped by disapproval of his job performance. At the moment, he is anything but a safe choice.
A month ago, I wrote a column wondering why no Democrats were challenging Biden. Democrats have largely assumed that Biden is not going to receive a serious primary challenge, which gives them the incentive to muffle their doubts. Talking about Biden’s unpopularity can easily feed into Trump’s attacks on Biden’s performance. You can believe, as I do, that Biden is capable of handling his job while doubting he is up to the public-facing duties of a campaign, but when it filters down to the public, the distinction between the two is easily lost.
Jonathan Martin has a column revealing several disturbing aspects of the party’s thinking. One is that Democratic officials are privately very concerned about Biden’s ability to win. “Most House Democrats,” he writes, “are more anxious about Biden than they are about their colleague from Minnesota.”
Second, pollsters and consultants are finding that Biden’s age is an overwhelming drawback in the eyes of the voters:

Last month at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, many lawmakers watched livestreams of focus groups with voters in Nevada and Michigan. Nearly all of them responded to questions about Biden the same way voters do in every focus group: by bringing up his age. (Though one attendee was heartened that the voters also cited Trump’s age and complained that both are too old.)


Every Democratic consultant I’ve talked to in recent weeks said that’s the only refrain they pick up on Biden.

And third, fear of internal blowback is preventing them from speaking publicly. “Nearly every ambitious Democrat [is] falling in line behind Biden for fear of weakening him, and their own future prospects,” reports Martin.
Right now, the only Democrat mulling a challenge is Representative Dean Phillips, a House member from Minnesota. Phillips had to give up a leadership position simply because he is talking openly about a primary challenge. Yet Martin reports “the Democratic lawmaker group texts are filled with admiration that somebody is at least highlighting the donkey in the room — if acknowledging that they could never say so publicly.”
What all this suggests is that Democrats believe Biden may be fatally damaged, but everybody is hesitant to run against him for fear that the blowback will end their career. Say, Governor Whitmer — who might be the party’s best presidential material at the moment — is well positioned to win the nomination in 2028, so why would she take a gamble? Other Democrats have to weigh the chance of beating Biden against the risk they lose and are blamed for his eventual defeat, jeopardizing whatever career ambitions they have.
Yet this means Biden’s campaign ability is not going to be tested during the primary, and next summer, the party will more or less hand him the nomination and hope somehow the public’s opinion of him turns around.
Almost two decades ago, Tom Edsall wrote about his years of experience playing poker with political big shots in Washington. Edsall recounted that, as a whole, “Republicans are much less risk-averse than Democrats, and taking risks is crucial to poker.”
Now, an observation like this — vulnerable to bias and confined to a limited sample size — can only go so far. Still, it seems to explain the Democratic Party’s passivity in the face of a dire circumstance. Running a primary challenge against Biden is a high-stakes bet. The risks are large: A defeated challenger could possibly hurt Biden and probably damage their own viability. But a defeated challenger could also give Biden the chance to prove his ability to handle a rigorous campaign. And a successful challenger could rescue the party from the worst possible outcome.
Here is the most chilling passage in Martin’s story:

In their more honest moments, even the most dedicated Biden defenders not on his payroll will nervously wonder if in the future they’ll look back at this moment and realize that the electorate had concluded he was too old for another term — and he ignored the flashing red lights to barrel ahead anyway.

Martin’s reporting doesn’t make it sound like Democrats have calculated that an uncontested primary gives them the best chance to beat Trump. It makes it sound instead like the decision has been made out of a combination of inertia, self-interest, and fear.

[Kirkland Laing]

I think that’s a little high but we’re probably past the point where we can afford to politely gloss over how far our politics is in thrall to weird 19th century apocalyptic fantasies based on misreading the hallucinations of first century fanatics.

https://twitter.com/normative/status...50311883813138



The House Republican Conference is a mess. Complete and utter mess. They are no closer to picking a speaker. They are a month away from a shutdown. Israel is asking for aid, which needs to pass in the next few weeks.They are completely lost. And have no idea how they will get out

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/stat...53377916506204



Praising Hezbollah for something horrific, which they didn't even do. It's like the distilled essence of every reason the man is unfit to be president.

https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/s...59308560994728



I would also point out that it's not surprising Hezbollah would attack Israel from the north. Where else would they attack from. They could attack from the west I suppose, that would really catch Israel by surprise.

[Master]

Does Kennedy standing as an independent also hurt Biden and give some advantage to Trump?

[NoSavingByTheBell]

Does Kennedy standing as an independent also hurt Biden and give some advantage to Trump?

This is possible but also a lot of repubs may decide to vote Kennedy and this hurts Trump

[Master]

Does Kennedy standing as an independent also hurt Biden and give some advantage to Trump?

This is possible but also a lot of repubs may decide to vote Kennedy and this hurts Trump

Did not think of that.

[NoSavingByTheBell]

Shocking how America and Britain support Israel who was created out of thin air on Palestinian territory and is an OCCUPYING APARTHEID STATE.

UK AND US 100% RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THIS

[NoSavingByTheBell]

Shocking how America and Britain support Israel who was created out of thin air on Palestinian territory and is an OCCUPYING APARTHEID STATE.

UK AND US 100% RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THIS

Whoops I forgot the main point here. Proof that America and Britain controlled by Israel IS THAT BOTH PARTIES LEFT AND RIGHT BLINDLY SUPPORT IT UNTIL THE BITTER END WITH HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EVERY YEAR.

IT DIDN'T MATTER WHETHER IT WAS JIMMY CARTER RONALD REAGAN GEORGE BUSH BILL CLINTON GEORGE BUSH JR OBAMA OR TRUMP

[Kirkland Laing]

Does Kennedy standing as an independent also hurt Biden and give some advantage to Trump?

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy’s presence on the ticket could spell major trouble for former President Donald Trump.
A new poll shows President Joe Biden leading Trump 44% to 37%, with Kennedy notching 16%.
Released by Marist in partnership with NPR and PBS Newshour on Tuesday, the poll shows a five-point drop among Democrats for Biden with Kennedy in the race. Meanwhile, the survey indicates a 10-point drop among Republicans for Trump with RFK Jr. on the ticket.
“Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor,” Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said.


https://www.mediaite.com/politics/wh...mp-than-biden/




Fox News certainly seem to think so too:

“So, I hope you don’t mind, but I did a little research on you. You’re pretty liberal,” the Fox host said before highlighting his work as an environmental lawyer. “You called for curbing logging, oil drilling, fracking. You wanted to eliminate it. You called it a victory for democracy. You want to curb U.S. fossil fuel extraction.”


Turns out he wants to ban guns and is pro abortion too. Amazing that after having him on dozens of times and giving him a primetime town hall they hadn't done any research on him until now.





Not all good news for Biden though:



How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters. Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.

A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female). But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?

They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.

Keep in mind: in 2020, when Biden’s favorability was above water and Trump was at 41% job approval (and Biden was ~7 pts ahead in the final polling averages), Trump still came within 42,915 votes in AZ, GA & WI out of ~160M cast nationally of winning a second term.

Now fast forward to 2024 with tied national polls, 40% Biden approval, equally dismal Biden/Trump favorability, more economic pessimism, growing migrant/intl crises and the potential for RFK/West to double Jill Stein’s pull on campuses, etc.Biden is in absolutely dire shape.



https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...82445141402038



Also:

https://resolutesquare.com/articles/...-third-parties



You can bet the Trump campaign, Biden campaign, RNC and DNC are currently polling the shit out of a three way race with Kennedy in it. The dark money Republicans behind Kennedy will be doing it too. They were only using him as an excuse to run anti Biden ads directed at the antivax/nutcase sector of the electorate. If they dump Kennedy he'll struggle for serious funding.

[Kirkland Laing]

Shocking how America and Britain support Israel who was created out of thin air on Palestinian territory and is an OCCUPYING APARTHEID STATE.

UK AND US 100% RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THIS

Whoops I forgot the main point here. Proof that America and Britain controlled by Israel IS THAT BOTH PARTIES LEFT AND RIGHT BLINDLY SUPPORT IT UNTIL THE BITTER END WITH HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EVERY YEAR.

IT DIDN'T MATTER WHETHER IT WAS JIMMY CARTER RONALD REAGAN GEORGE BUSH BILL CLINTON GEORGE BUSH JR OBAMA OR TRUMP

It's amazing to see the MAGA rank and file turn on Israel to the extent they're currently doing. Even ten years ago they couldn't have been more solidly behind Israel and saw the Palestinians as subhuman animals. This is part of a sea change in attitudes that's been ongoing for almost half a century now. After WW2 American elites had had an up close object lesson in how things go when somebody exploiting blood and soil nationalism gets into power and the entire political spectrum of the elites worked to marginalise any of this stuff in politics. There was a bit of an outbreak with George Wallace but other than that a little bit of red meat at election times, maybe mention getting tough on trade and so on and that would be it.

The dam started to break in the eighties with Reagan and the elites decided they could take a much bigger slice of the pie and the backlash this caused among the electorate could be marginalised or redirected or whatever. But then the GOP had to lean further and further into culture war stuff just to get anywhere near fifty percent. They just couldn't win the popular vote in national elections anymore. Then talk radio and then the internet and then Trump came along to supercharge the culture war stuff and now we have the MAGA base turning against Israel. Go back a hundred years and look where the Nazis and fascism in Europe in general were and the attitudes and motivations of the people in those countries and it's an almost bang on echo of where things were right now. The 2030s are going to be scary.

[Kirkland Laing]

Nothing to see here, just good and effective government policy with no drama. But of course that’s not exciting. Good ole effective gov doesn’t sell in today’s reality tv like political media market place. Yep, sure sure Biden is doing a terrible job, just terrible.

https://twitter.com/cornellbelcher/s...06020205904374



By far the best recovery of any major economy.



Related:

I don’t think presidents have much effect on crime. But it’s fascinating that Trump is the first president in 30 years to oversee a rise in crime. And crime has dropped significantly since he left office. Yet Republicans still attack Biden and Democrats on crime. And it works!

https://twitter.com/radleybalko/stat...10768570458629

[Kirkland Laing]

If any one thing is going to screw Biden it's mortgage rates. Eight percent now.

$400k house with 20% down costs $1000 more per month now than it did two years ago.

https://twitter.com/KellyCNBC/status...92450491548097



People with mortgages vote.





If it isn't mortgage/loan rates it'll be gas prices. Watch Saudi and Putin slash production next summer.



Luckily Biden just has to explain to American voters where the burst of inflation really came from and how it's necessary to raise interest rates to flatten inflation and also explain the geopolitical realities behind the gas price increases that are happening despite record US oil production and they'll understand.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.





We're going to get a fascist dictatorship aren't we.

[Kirkland Laing]

Related:

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/s...86413427671365