On paper it seems all AJ.
Now I know the styles are different from this comparison, yet when it occurred it reminded me-anything is possible. Chrys Byrd over Tua. Yes I know Tua isnt a great boxer, but at the time few saw a former MW staying away from that power all night long.
It is possible for Usyk to use AJ's bulky frame against him. I just hope he doesn't try to run all night like Haye vs Klitschko.
6'6 82 inch reach
6'3 78 inch reach.
If boxrec is accurrate that isn't too big of a difference on reach.
According to CompuBox punch stats, Usyk is capable of throwing over 900
Joshua's last fight with Ruiz he threw just under 400.
The odds are against Usyk. But then again, we're talking a big guy whose equilibrium got the worst of him in his loss. Usyk Works on looping shots who knows.
Not sure how hard that shot was compared to what Usyk can do.
AJ is the favorite, but I wouldn't count Usyk out. Lots of lateral movement. Peppering with the jab. Make AJ extend his arms early on, see if he can get some fatigue going on. Highly unlikely he will land a shot to hurt AJ.
How well AJ can cut that ring off will determine IMO how far Usyk can last into the fight. If AJ is up on the score cards 1/2 way through hard to see Usyk winning.
I expect a pretty good chess matchup. No brawling fight.
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