Dan Rafael blog: Serious talks underway for Pavlik-Williams and other tid bits

[ClubberLang]

• I was told this week that serious talks have been rekindled for a fall fight between middleweight champ Kelly Pavlik and Paul Williams, with HBO making a very strong offer. The question is, will the two camps, who don't exactly get along well, be able to agree on the split? We shall see, but my fingers are crossed because it's a great fight -- certainly a lot bigger than anything else either guy can legitimately make.

David Haye runs his mouth, then just runs - ESPN

He also rips into David Haye for how he and his team have behaved.

[ClubberLang]

If the fight happens, I like Williams by a solid decision. I don't see a plodding one-two puncher like Pavlik giving Williams much trouble. That said, while Williams has shown a sturdy beard in the past, Pavlik will definitely be the biggest puncher he's faced. I think his chin will remain true, but it should be a very good fight if it happens.

[jon09]

This is going to be a very good fight. I think Pavlik has a real good shot at beating Williams as long as he is mentally and physically prepared to walk through a hail storm of punches. I don't think Williams has the punching power to ko Pavlik and that will be the deciding factor with Pavlik winning by late round ko.

[LEGION]

Great fight; needs to happen badly.

Pavlik one of my faves, won't lie, but he's in deep water with this kid. This fight will get ugly at times; I don't know who to pick.

Both throw alot of punches; Williams a better all around boxer but not sure at 160 he'll have the power to trouble Pavlik, which in th deep rounds could haunt him. If he does ko Kelly he really is a phenom; to have the genetics to do what he's doing.

I'm not sayin Pavlik is some MW messiah but he's no bum, like him or not. He's one dimensional; predictable, but he comes to fight and he's still, imo, one of the top 3 finishers in the sport; he hurts you you're in trouble. Pavlik should try to go for the body on Paul; but he'll have trouble catching Paul. I just don't know on this one. i'll take Pavlik just cause he's unbeaten at MW and he's the man to beat there. PW pulls this off he earned it.

[kingfrnk]

i think Paul takes this now. he wont stop Pavlik but he will win a decision.

[ClubberLang]

Regarding Williams punching power...after his loss to Quintana, for whatever reason, Williams started punching with much greater authority. I don't know if he just started sitting down on his punches better or if fighting at the higher weights gives him a little extra oomph, but there is a very telling difference. But whatever the case, while he still does not have one punch power, he really put a beating on both Winky and Phillips. I mean, those guys really got beat up by Paul. I don't see a KO for Williams but I think Pavlik will have to be prepared to take a beating if he wants to get close enough to Williams to eventaully put him away. I can't see Pavlik winning a decision. Williams is simply too busy to lose on the cards. He's going to have to walk through the propeller and try to wear Williams down and put him away in the late rounds. Williams' stamina and chin are so good though I just don't see it happening.

[LEGION]

Regarding Williams punching power...after his loss to Quintana, for whatever reason, Williams started punching with much greater authority. I don't know if he just started sitting down on his punches better or if fighting at the higher weights gives him a little extra oomph, but there is a very telling difference. But whatever the case, while he still does not have one punch power, he really put a beating on both Winky and Phillips. I mean, those guys really got beat up by Paul. I don't see a KO for Williams but I think Pavlik will have to be prepared to take a beating if he wants to get close enough to Williams to eventaully put him away. I can't see Pavlik winning a decision. Williams is simply too busy to lose on the cards. He's going to have to walk through the propeller and try to wear Williams down and put him away in the late rounds. Williams' stamina and chin are so good though I just don't see it happening.

That's the question; will the added weight show a better punch on Williams. He's shown he can punch anyways and I'm betting he will have some power up there. Which like you said will make it tough on Kelly. If the power is there I can see him ko'ing Pavlik; PW is a finisher as well. I can see it going the other way as well; Pavlik has great killer instincts and can finish quickly.

Like I said he's going to have to work hard to catch up to PW{I don't see PW wanting to trade inside or on the ropes, so he'll stay on his back foot}and Kelly needs to find a way to slow him down, i.e. body shots early but easier said than done from Pavlik who isn't fast on his feet and could end up getting tagged alot trying to play catch up to PW. PW will be similar to JT in the second Pavlik fight; though with endless stamina and throwing more. Pavlik has to get to the body imo or he will lose a decision at best. Should be interesting t see if PW does have that crazy stamina agaist a guy who is a big MW and will keep him busy all night.

Great fight; I am pumped hoping this one goes off. If Pavlik loses and depending in what fashion this could set up a nice little rivalry; or Kelly will go to AA

[C-Lo]

This would be a good one!

I think Williams' workrate and angles will bother Pavlik but he will feel it everytime he gets hit. I gotta go with my boy Kelly on this one.

[Spicoli]

Really dont see any other direction for Pavlik.Hes not going to 168 and otherwise would spend his time with mandatorys and Sergio Mora.I'd say this one def comes off.

Last year I saw convinced Pavlik would be too much.Too big,too straight.But Williams volume and hand speed with using his height could really give Pavlik problems.Williams really needs to stay smart,not come in with those wide punches and not hang his reachable chin out there.If he falls in and gives up his height,he could pay for it in a bad way.Pavlik may have one single gear but can crack right down the middle,time Williams in between flurries.

[The Fightfan]

Kelly will be too strong for Williams and especially at middleweight. People think about Williams' output but Kelly himself like I've said in the past throw's upward of 100 punches a round as well. Williams is no defensive wizard like Hopkins meaning his punching is his defense. I think Kelly can take it and he will dish it. Kelly by KO.

[ClubberLang]

Kelly will be too strong for Williams and especially at middleweight. People think about Williams' output but Kelly himself like I've said in the past throw's upward of 100 punches a round as well. Williams is no defensive wizard like Hopkins meaning his punching is his defense. I think Kelly can take it and he will dish it. Kelly by KO.

To beat Williams you have to be able to time your punches well. Margarito started to get into a better rythem timing his punches late in their fight, but by then it was too late. Qunitana was able to beat him, but he is a slick counter-puncher which is the style best suited to give Williams trouble. While Pavlik is generally a busy fighter, I think Williams own volume and quickness will neutralize Pavlik's output and he'll have to try and time his punch over Williams, do a bit of counterpunching. But I have never really seen Pavlik fight that way, so unless he can catch Williams and KO him and I just don't see him winning. Pavlik is a good finisher, though, so if he can get Williams hurt he can do it. But I have never seen Williams seriously hurt. Then again, Pavlik will be the best pucher he has faced, so we'll see. I think Williams wins by a fairly wide UD. It will be exciting and Pavlik will have his moments, but Williams output and stamina will be too much for Kelly to win a decision.

[ElTerribleMorales]

If the fight happens, I like Williams by a solid decision. I don't see a plodding one-two puncher like Pavlik giving Williams much trouble. That said, while Williams has shown a sturdy beard in the past, Pavlik will definitely be the biggest puncher he's faced. I think his chin will remain true, but it should be a very good fight if it happens.

i agree, i think Williams could pull off the W, but although his chin is good, he was wobbled a bit by Quintana in the first fight, IMO Pavlik does have the power to hurt him

[El Kabong]

Big Props to Rafael for calling out David Haye!!!


Here are my picks for the mentioned fights:

Williams-Pavlik....The Punisher, by KO! Pavlik has personal issues and Williams' style is awkward and his output is above average, Pavlik is going to get shook early, try to force his way back in the fight and then get put down for good with a HUGE left cross. Pavlik is done at 160 and will move up to 168....just my opinion though

Ward-Kessler...Kessler by SD, down on points knocks Ward down late and finishes strong

Abraham-Taylor...Taylor by SD (if the fight is in the US) Abraham by UD if the fight is in Germany

Dirrell-Froch....Dirrell by KO

[Rantcatrat]

Big Props to Rafael for calling out David Haye!!!


Here are my picks for the mentioned fights:

Williams-Pavlik....The Punisher, by KO! Pavlik has personal issues and Williams' style is awkward and his output is above average, Pavlik is going to get shook early, try to force his way back in the fight and then get put down for good with a HUGE left cross. Pavlik is done at 160 and will move up to 168....just my opinion though

Ward-Kessler...Kessler by SD, down on points knocks Ward down late and finishes strong

Abraham-Taylor...Taylor by SD (if the fight is in the US) Abraham by UD if the fight is in Germany

Dirrell-Froch....Dirrell by KO

Ward by SD - fight is in Oakland.
Abraham v. Taylor - tough fight to pick. AA by knockout or Taylor by decision.
Dirrell by KO? Really? Explain.

[ClubberLang]

Rafael does not seem to think getting around Mora will be an issue. From his chat today:

James (Ashville, NC)




Sergio Mora has been saying Pavlik legally has to face him and he won't step aside. Could this be a problem making Pavlik-Williams?
Dan Rafael (1:41 PM)





They'll work that out I am sure. I feel bad for Mora because he does have a contract but I am pretty sure it will be resolved.

Chat: Chat with Dan Rafael - SportsNation - ESPN

He also said the fight was far from a done deal because they are far apart on what the split should be. I am a Williams fan and think he wis the better fighter, but from a financial perspective Pavlik is the champ and is the bigger draw. If he wants a big fight, he has to relize that at this point he'll have to get the short end of the stick.