Originally Posted by
CutMeMick
Duran beat SRL, SRL beat Hearns now that didn't mean that when Duran fought Hearns that he was gonna win did it?
This is a completely different situation though. Leonard, Duran and Hearns were all on a similar level. They were all elite all-time great fighters, and since they were all on a similar level, style matchups came into play.
That's my point here.... Mayweather, Cotto, and Margarito are not all on similar levels. Mayweather is an elite fighter. Margarito is a very good professional fighter, but not elite. Cotto is a very very good fighter who has shown many signs of being an elite fighter. If Cotto can't beat Margarito, who is a clear level or two below Mayweather, then there's no reason to believe Cotto can beat Mayweather.
Generally speaking, upsets occur for one of three reasons:
1. The favorite comes in unprepared and/or out of shape
2. The underdog has a style that is tailor-made to give the favorite problems
3. The favorite isn't as good as we thought he was
#1 and #2 do not apply to Cotto-Margarito. Cotto is a pro who shows up focused and in-shape. This is a big PPV fight that's already being billed as a FOTY candidate. Cotto isn't going to show up unprepared or out of shape.
Margarito does not have the type of style to give Cotto fits. Margarito shows very little movement and is right there to be hit all night long. Margarito is a high-contact fighter, and that should allow Cotto to show off his superior offensive arsenal all night long.
Which leaves only #3. If Cotto loses, it won't be because he's out-of-shape, it won't be because he's unprepared, it won't be because of a bad style matchup. If he loses, it will mean that he's closer to Margarito's "very good" level, and not close to Mayweather's "elite" level.
I completely understand your point that we often overreact to one loss on a fighter's record. That is absolutely true and I've been guilty of it before. I also completely agree with your statement that just because A beats B, and B beats C, that doesn't mean A automatically beats C. But in this particular case, I think the only type of fighter than can beat Mayweather right now is a Top 5 PFP star fighter, and if Cotto is really a Top 5 PFP star fighter (which I believe he is), then he has no excuse to lose to Margarito, who is very good, but not THAT good.
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