Originally Posted by
Rantcatrat
It's tough not to like Cotto. He's the epitomy of a likeable fighter. He's had a great career, borderline Hall of Fame. He's a proven warrior. He's a gentemen outside the ring. Heck, as evidence, I've never seen Floyd so complimentary toward an opponent before a fight.
However, let's be honest with ourselves, Cotto has zero chance of winning this fight. What follows are the reasons.
(1) Cotto doesn't have a single physical advantage over Floyd: (i) he's not faster; (ii) he's not fresher; and (iii) he's not bigger. Correct on all counts.
(2) The current Cotto doesn't present any stylistic problems for Floyd. He not a bigger, pressure fighter, which just based on styles, should be the toughest style for Floyd. The new Cotto boxes more, but he's not a better boxer than Floyd. Again... no issues here.
(3) Cotto is ill-prepared for the fight because he has never faced elite competition at 154 and he's been relatively inactive the last couple of years. The theory that the promoters are pumping out that Cotto will be tough beacause the fight is at 154 is smoke and mirrors at its finest. Actions speak louder than words. Cotto has showed us nothing to make us believe that he is more effective at 154. Cotto hasn't had one challenging fight on paper, at any weight class, since he lost to Pacquiao. In a relatively decent division, he hasn't faced one top ten junior middleweight. It's remarkable really that the Ring Magazine has ranked him that high for a win over Yuri Foreman. This is just my theory, but I believe Cotto isn't fighting at 147 any longer because he's a veteran that doesn't want to deal with cutting weight. Frankly, there are a number of guys, besides Floyd and Manny, between 147 and 160 that would probably beat Cotto right now. To my untrained eye, Cotto hasn't been the same since Margarito I. That doesn't equate to saying Cotto isn't still a very good fighter, because he is, but he's no longer a p4p level fighter. Not sure whether I agree with all of this. See my comments below.
(4) Mayweather is the best p4p fighter in the world.
Where does all that leave us? Cotto, who is on a downward trajectory and hasn't faced an elite fighter since Pacqauio, facing the best fighter in the entire world. It's not a recipe for success if you're a Cotto fan. There's just no other way to look at it.
Expect Mayweather to dominate Cotto from round 2 onward. In addition, because Cotto fades in the later rounds of fights, a good bet would be a late round technical knockout, maybe his corner throwing in the towel after Cotto has lost most of the rounds.
Note that in no way is this post meant as a slight on Cotto. He's a terrific boxer who has had an exemplary career.
Well thought out post and some excellent points, Rant. However, there are some things you've omitted. See my imbedded comments above, and some additional ones below.
1. I agree that Cotto's best weight is 147. His height and frame are best suited for that division. He's done acceptably well at 154, but 147 is his natural weight. However, Floyd himself comes from the lower divisions. So he is by no means the naturally larger man himself. Powerwise, I think Cotto has the edge.
2. Cotto lost to a cheating Margarito, and was beaten by Pacquaio after abandoning his fight plan early in the fight and going toe-to-toe with the faster Pac. The latter was completely the product of Cotto having a nobody in his corner. He had feuded with his uncle, Evangelista, and had hooked up with Joe Santiago, who had nothing to offer to Miguel. Nothing. Had he had the corner he has now, with Cuban trainer Pedro Diaz, it might have been a whole 'nother story.
3. With Diaz in his corner, Cotto has shown the remarkable ability to reinvent himself. To go back to his boxing and ring generalship roots, when he used to dismantle his opponents with a mixture of hooks to the body, good movement, and power shots inside. He did just that against the much bigger Margarito in their rematch.
So while none of this obviously necessarily translates into a Cotto victory, it does mean he has a better chance than most people give him against Mayweather.
The only other disagreement I have is your HOF assessment. Lots of less worthy fighters have been picked for the HOF. Cotto, in my opinion, is a shoo-in.
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