Where I'm coming from is that pre-Margarito, Cotto was a different fighter. Since then he seems more fragile. I have no basis for it. Even with any perceived added fragility, he's still a very capable fighter.
I wrote a lengthy post with the reasons I thought Cotto had little shot in this fight. I won't repeat them again. I also prefaced that post by saying that I view Cotto as a borderline-hall of famer, and greatly admire hiis boxing skills and career. So, in no way, do I mean to disparage the Puerto Rican warrior. I just think he's got an unsurmountable hill to climb in fighting Pretty Boy.
With regard to weight, in my estimation, Cotto is at 154 because he doesn't want to deal with cutting the extra weight. With his cache, it is something he has the power to do. It's not because he is more effective at 154. His choice of competition at 154 bares that out. In further support is that at 140 and 147, he fought everyone possible. Why do you think he is better at 154?
Also, remember pre-Ortiz and pre-Marquez 3, I was one of the only posters to view the Ortiz fight as a mismatch and also that in no way was Marquez getting schooled by Pacquiao because he has Pacquiao's number.
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