Re: Ward/Kovalev 2...who wins?
Ward put on muscle for this fight. Presumably to try to up his punch resistance (neck and shoulder exercises) and bull Kovalev around the ring once he clamps on to him. He's hoping that looking like the stronger fighter during the hugs makes him look like the aggressor and not like hes hiding from kovalev in the clinches and somehow swing the rounds more in his favor without actually doing any more work than he did before. Look for Ward to start the hug and slug early and play a carefully orchestrated but seeming aggressive all out ambush early (he'll throw big shots on the inside and from safe angles). Presumably at the last 20 seconds of the 1st (only if he feels hes confident in believing he has an accurate sample of kovalev) or 2nd round to try and make the statement to kovalev that hes not afraid and set a tone. Only in the last 20-25 seconds (so if he gets clipped, he'll hopefully make it to his feet and then be walked back to his corner to collect himself.) So he ties up Kovalev early, leans on him and pushes him back and tries to work him over in the clinches and try to wear him out early (and conserve his own energy). Kovalev gets most of his offense smothered this way (as his strongest punches tend to be his long straight punches) and unless he learns to get nasty in the clinches, won't deter ward from coming in and spend most of the rounds trying to break free from the Kraken.. The worst will be seeing ward hulk up just to go back to the same tactics.
Kovalevs plan for this fight is to probably grind ward to a halt the way he feels he should have in the first fight. Not a bad plan if Ward was a stand up fighter, but he's not and often times works off of a jab out of a crouch. Kovalev should have spent his time concentrating on fighting while backing up. That is... using his feet to pivot or sidestep to offset wards feint to the body then jab up top and throw to wards body and ribs behind the jab instead of trying to come over the top and head hunting. Stepping back and switching his stance (he does it enough going forward to throw a straight left and then straight right in succession) and throwing the uppercut would also improve his chances.
Still with all of this.. somethings don't change. One of those things is Ward doesn't like to get hit. Seems terrified of it at times, actually. And that alone will still make the rounds close for Kovalev as long as he keeps throwing. The other thing is that Kovalev feels like fighting harder is better than fighting smarter and will try to force it rather than listen to his trainer. I'm not sure i'm interested in watching the next chapter of this clusterf*ck but if Krusher pulls off the improbable and lays out Ward and takes the air out of his fluff, i'll probably watch it on repeat for a solid week.
They want your @$$ beat because upsets make news. News brings about excitement, excitement brings about ratings. The objective is to bring you up to the tower and tear your @$$ down. And if you don't believe that, you're crazy.
Roy Jones, Jr. "What I've Learned," Esquire 2003
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