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Tonight, HBO’s World Championship Boxing series delivers a juicy post-Thanksgiving treat. In the main event, southpaw Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero (30-1-1 18 KO’s) engages in his second fight since the questionable move to Welterweight as he faces heavy handed Haitian-American contender Andre Berto (28-1-0 22 KO’s).
With Guerrero’s WBC Interim strap on the line, which he won from tough Turkish opponent Selcuk Aydin in his Showtime-televised Welterweight debut earlier this year, you’d expect him to be listed as the favorite.
But that is incorrect as natural Welterweight Berto is a somewhat surprising two to one favorite in the crossroads battle. Many are predicting Berto to capture a victory for just that reason.
Although it is visible that Guerrero has physically shaped up to his new weight division since July, he still is clearly the less natural Welterweight than his opponent.
Guerrero’s lessened punch power at the higher weight will also likely be a disadvantage but being the slimmer man, he will also be faster than Berto, and have the energy to fight actively well into the latter half of the twelve round battle. That gives enthusiastic Guerrero fans their argument for a victory.
To swiftly conclude this part of the preview, I’ll round-up the major keys to victory for both talented fighters.
The first thing for Interim Champion Guerrero is to keep proper distance. In the Aydin bout, I saw him trying to fight on the inside and that caused him to eat shots from the Turk that he doesn’t need to do against Berto.
As Guerrero likely cannot match Berto in power, early on “The Ghost” can discourage his opponent with movement; going in and out of range with quick, straight one-two combinations to the head and fast uppercuts to the body.
This leads me to the second suggestion for Guerrero: glide this fight into the second half. If Guerrero fights the way I just mentioned, Berto will be discouraged and quite tired out by this point after attempting the chase his rival down. This would be the opportunity for Guerrero to continue grinding the body and doing a tiny bit more power-punching to cause a potential late stoppage or decision victory.
Now, the challenger, heavy handed Berto must act nearly opposite to former Lightweight superstar Guerrero. The best thing Berto can do is to land that right hook.
The straight left-right hook combo is quite powerful for Berto and with Guerrero being a “slickster”, the savvy fighter can sometimes keep his hands low, relying on movement from the southpaw stance and thus the right hand can crack him hard.
The solution to landing that punch is for Berto to get inside, which is his the second key to victory.
Berto needs to be consistent, keeping the pressure on and trapping Guerrero. When he does back up Guerrero, Berto must take advantage early before it is too late. With this, I can see Berto making a major statement in the Welterweight division after a bad 14-month layoff.
From a personal standpoint, I am just not sure that, after a 14 month layoff, Berto can keep up with Guerrero. I have seen fights slip past Berto multiple times in the past. This leads me to pick a Guerrero win by decision. But, if Berto can keep consistent with his work, and land that right hand, he could put Guerrero to sleep.
The main event is now covered, but before that there is another intriguing fight on the menu. In the co-headlining bout, American prospect Keith Thurman (18-0-0 17 KO’s) will look to beat upset-minded warrior Carlos Quintana (29-3-0 23 KO’s) of Puerto Rico.
Breaking this contest down rather quickly, Keith Thurman and Carlos Quintana are both internationally renowned KO artists. Quintana is a southpaw and much more experienced. Many rank him at the top of his division and a Thurman victory shall propel the prospect into title contention.
I am believing, as he often does, that Carlos Quintana will shock the world with an upset, perhaps a technical knockout win against Keith Thurman, as Quintana did earlier this year against DeAndre Latimore. But this one is very difficult to predict.
Be sure to tune in for this tremendous doubleheader live on HBO’s World Championship boxing presented by Golden Boy Promotions from 10:00 PM Eastern /7:00 PM Pacific.
Corey Quincy is a boxing writer for Saddoboxing.com, his personal blog Blboxing.com, and other sites. Follow him on Twitter at Quincyboxingfan and like his Facebook page at Boxing Legends. Email Comments to Coreyg100@yahoo.com.
