Let's be realistic - what are the odds that Haye pulls off an upset?

I'm not talking about betting odds, realistically I give Haye less then a 5% chance of knocking Wlad out, and that's Haye's only chance, because he has zero chance of "outboxing/outworking" Wlad and winning a decision.

Why does Haye have less then a 5% chance of winning and only by KO, you ask?:

#1. As mentioned, Haye has zero chance of out-boxing Wlad and winning a decision. Wlad is a much more skilled boxer, with twice the ring experience as a Pro, and at least 5 times more HW title fights. So forget about Haye winning a decision, it ain't gonna happen.

#2. Haye is "speedy" and has a bit of power, but let's be real here, it's not like Wlad hasn't faced big punchers before. These days because of his improved defense, size and reach, it's not that easy to hit Wlad with clean effective punches. Especially when you're getting a heavy jab in your face, and getting pounded with powerful straight right hands. Getting that one big shot in, that turns the fight around for Haye, will be about as likely as him winning the lottery.

#3. Manny Steward is going to have Wlad well prepared for this fight, he'll be in the best shape ever, and put on his best performance ever in front of his adopted home-crowd in Germany. I also believe we're going to see everyone of Haye's weaknesses exposed, including his chin/stamina, and lack of experience at the elite level. Haye's wild, desperate swings, in an attempt to get a KO, will only make him look like an amateur.

Anyway, that's my take, if i'm wrong, feel free to have a go at me July 3rd.
:bag:

ANOTHER Haye thread. Just what we needed. ;D

I think haye definitely has greater than a 5% chance. Although i do not doubt wlad will be puting a lot of preparation into it, you can bet haye is as well. The last power hitter wlad faced was peter, and peter was a bit slow. More importantly peter was slow in manuvering largely due to his weight and build. If i know one thing from seeing wlad fight over and over is that an opponent must be mobile in order to even hope to make use of their power. Surprisingly, chambers (who had fast hands) had no power and more to his demise, often stayed rooted to one spot right in front of wlad. So that was actually 2 things going against him. Chagaev was rumored to have power. Was the rumor true? Im still not sure but i noticed little to no latteral movement as he was fighting wlad.

If you truly believe honestly that Haye only has a 5% chance of winning then you should be placing a massive bet on Wlad, like a get half the money you own and stick it on Wlad amount. If you have done that then fairplay.

Personally I think the odds are about right, a near enough pick em fight but definite favouritism towards Wlad cos hes proven at the weight

I personally have a bet on Wlad to stop Haye in any round from 7 thru 12 at 9/2. I think thats a great wager

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hornfinger

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

---

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by boxingbantz

ANOTHER Haye thread. Just what we needed. ;D

---

The fight is coming up in about 10 days, can't have enough threads about it. :)

Haye has a good chance he's a big hard punching heavy with good speed and speed kills. Wlad should be favourite though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mars_ax

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hornfinger

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

---

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

---

:lol:

Touch a nerve did I? :lolhaha:

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

7-1 in favor of Wlad!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by killersheep

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

---

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out". :cool:

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on is an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hornfinger

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Mars_ax

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hornfinger

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

---

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

---

:lol:

Touch a nerve did I? :lolhaha:

---

Not really, I just don't understand why you feel the need to act like a childish jack-off, makes me wonder if it's an ego thing, or are you just really that fucking stupid.

Anyway Horntard, have fun on my ignore list, you're my first here at Saddo.

He found openings vs Sam Peter in the first round of their fight.....he's ready to give the boxing world a first round KO....BUT, he wants to punish his opponent so he may carry him a while.

I just wonder this, Who stops the fight first: Wlad, the Ref, or the opposing corner?