Let's be realistic - what are the odds that Haye pulls off an upset?

[Hornfinger]

Realistically I'm not going to pay any attention to what a pactard has to say about boxing, because let's face it none of them have a clue about anything apart from one fighter.

Now on the subject matter the question shouldn't be what are the chances of Haye winning it should be what are the chances of haye landing first.

I don't believe either fighter is going to come out throwing bombs I expect the first three rounds to be very tactical with little going on from either man.

I give haye a 35-40% chance of landing first, taking into account wlads height and reach advantage. If haye lands first with something big he wins.

Hey Horntard, how 'bout canning the "pactard" insults OK, cocksucker? If you've ever bothered to read any of my posts, Pacquiao is just one of about 20 pugs I like to watch fight and not even my favorite, so fucking blow me asshole.
That is all.

Touch a nerve did I?

[killersheep]

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

[marbleheadmaui]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

[:::PSL:::]

7-1 in favor of Wlad!

[Mars_ax]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

[marbleheadmaui]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

LOL, this is true! Like you I'm pretty comfortable though. Some here are imparting traits to 13 he has never shown as a heavy to argue his chance.

[Mars_ax]

My own view is the history of the sport is that odds of more than 4 or 5-1 should almost never be exceeded. Weird stuff happens.

I think 13 belongs at the low end of that spectrum. He has one chance in five.

True, weird things happen, maybe Wlad will get hit by lightening during the fight, or go flying out of the ring like Kermit Cintron. I'll still stick with my one chance in twenty, if i'm wrong you'll still have to eat as much crow as I will...

LOL, this is true! Like you I'm pretty comfortable though. Some here are imparting traits to 13 he has never shown as a heavy to argue his chance.

The last Brit fighter I underestimated was Joe Calzaghe, I convinced myself that he was a paper tiger and/or an overrated fraud before his fight with Lacy. Boy was I ever wrong!

Haye however, ain't no Joe Calzaghe, his skill level is not even close to Joe's. Haye's fans can impart all the imaginary traits they want, but it ain't gonna help Haye win the fight.

[Mars_ax]

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out".

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on is an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

[Fenster]

Oddschecker is running about

8/13 (-162) Wlad Any Means
5/4 (+120) Wlad by KO, TKO, DQ
7/2 (+350) Wlad by decision

17/10 (+170) Haye Any Means
2/1 (+200) Haye by KO, TKO, DQ
8/1 (+800) Haye by decision

44/1 (+4400) Draw

If you feel 95% certain Wlad will win those aren't bad odds to lay down some scratch. Personally I favor Wlad but only slightly 55/45 or 60/40 maybe and the punters putting down cash tend to agree with me. What looks interesting to me is Haye by decision it is possible, and paying out quite strong.

Good info Killer, I feel 95% certain that Wlad will stop this clown within 8 rounds. Wlad is going to be at his absolute peak for this fight, and ready to make a statement. I believe we're going to see a much more aggressive Wlad, not holding back from throwing his big right as he often times does. I can already tell what Manny Steward is going to tell Wlad right before the fight starts: "Go knock this mother-fucker out".

As for betting, I rarely do unless the odds are right, I wouldn't get a big enough return betting on Wlad unless I bet a shitload of money. What I really like is betting on an underdog, when I think they have a good chance of winning.

Not bad odds is an understatement. You are getting fantastic value.

You believe Wlad's odds should be 1/20 for a KO. The bookies make it 5/4.

$100 bucks on a 1/20 shot returns $105.
$100 bucks on a 5/4 shot returns $225.

IF you truly trust your judgement this is an opportunity not to miss. If you was a betting man you'd think you've won the lottery.

[Hornfinger]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

[erics44]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

[Mars_ax]

if haye wins it is only a minor upset

Come on Erics, outside of the dream world you seem to live in when it comes to Haye, this would have to be considered a major upset in the sport of boxing.

[Fenster]

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1

Wlad has been knocked down 50 times. Haye has a 90% KO ratio. And the unlikelihood of a Haye decision is factored into the price.

Personally, I think Haye's odds are too short. Which is making Wlad look worth a bet. However, I certainly won't be backing against Haye.

[Hornfinger]

I'm going to put money on a haye KO and also I'll choose a round.

[Taffturner]

Haye got decisions in germany against (valuev), and france (mormeck) they say a brit has to ko a man twice in france to get a points win!!!

I think the odds are quite poor for a Haye KO win. 2/1? I thought it'd be more like 5/1

Also Haye by decision in germany should be at least 1000/1