Please either delete or move this hijacked thread to "let's get it on"
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Please either delete or move this hijacked thread to "let's get it on"
I'm hoping Gary Johnson gets at least 5% of the popular vote which is a long shot but hopefully we get a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The chaos will be epic.
Obama will win, with at least 300 of the electorate. He is just now pulling ahead in the popular vote in most of the best aggregates. But the election isn't decided by popular vote, it is decided state to state and tallied with the electoral college. And here is where Romney runs into deep trouble. He is behind in nearly every swing state with Obama already leading, and decisively. Most of the again, aggregates, have Romney's chances of winning the electoral at anywhere from 2-20%.
The two most successful firms in statistical analysis from the 08 election currently have Obama at a 86.5% and 97 % probability of a win.
But I agree with VC, a tie would be hilarious.
That's funny Charlie, but hopefully we'll have a clear-cut winner before I hit the sack at 11:00 PM Tuesday night. :-\Quote:
Originally Posted by VictorCharlie
I agree, Romney winning would be a big upset, and the electoral college dictates who wins. If Romney wins i'm happy, if BO wins, i'll be one of his biggest critics the next 4 for years, as I watch the U.S. spiraling down the proverbial toilet bowl. Either way, i'll do just fine personally. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Youngblood
I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.
I don't think the economy would really have changed much either way, to be honest. All the magic potion stuff either is spewing towards the economy is just rhetoric for the most part. The US suffered a major recession because of mistakes from the past and is on the mend. The recovery has been slow, but that has been the nature of this recession and it aligns with how everyone who was affected by it in the world community is also recovering. In fact you guys are doing slightly better than most. You guys will be fine.
Just no more stupid wars for a bit, okay?
Yea, he's taking a lot of flack this week from the right ( I believe its based in fear tbh or just plain rhetoric), but for the most part there is no partisan bias in his model. It could very well fall apart on election night and we won't know until then. But that would pretty much be the end for him, and it would have been the dumbest thing ever for him to slant or bias his numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by VictorCharlie
edit to add: that basically, for it to be wrong, it would mean that all the polling firms are wrong, near every single one of them. his corrections in the weighting for bias is tended to be conservative in comparison to others. But hey, this is election time, so who knows, right? So we getting drunk Tuesday? :)
I saw this on his twitter today.
"We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1."
Seems a bit CYA to me. Oh and the Redskins lost so Romney is a shoe in.
There is no way around it, it is a close race. Those high numbers I'm using are just probability. And that shit happens. I've played enough poker to know I've had hands many times where I was an 80 or even 98 % favorite, to see the wrong card come next and money go the other direction.
Obama will win the election. Blame Sandy, or blame Romney for having all the grab of a pile of dry leafs. Honestly I am totally who gives a shate about either. Obama is a late night infomercial front man who you can see right through...I don't know a 'Mitt'. Though I do get the impression that he is ten times brighter than his vp running mate. This whole particular campaign and process feels like a short cut for some reason. Romney is a walking contradiction but, he is 'new'. Should he win I wouldn't mind frankly but I think he'll be an empty suit and won't be able to garner support from the hard right and certainly not the left to make strides and needed progress.
I think Obama will edge it, but the entire thing is just a massive pantomime horse.
On this side you have Obama who should have been impeached for Libya, who expanded the war on Afghanistan, failed to introduce the minimum wage, chickened out on single payer healthcare, assasinates people on sovereign soil, kills innocent people weekly in drone attacks, failed to reform the financial sector or hold those responsible to account, failed to investigate war criminals Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, who failed to hold its client state Israel to account for murder and land theft, who can detain Bradley Manning indefinitely, who didn't close Guantanamo, who didn't cut the deficit, who can now kill any US citizen or person globally on the suspicion of being a 'terrorist'. The man is criminal and needs to be held to account and voting him back in is not holding him to account.
It is a massively sad indictment that someone with a record like that above is potentially the least bad option. Going on what Romney has been saying, Romney is an economic liability, a potential hand grenade on world affairs, an environmental psychopath. This is a man who believes in golden tablets sent from angels and that Jesus visited the native Americans. It is outright insanity.
This is no election, it is pure theatre and it sickens me that this is what it boils down to. The corruption, the slime, the dishonesty, the farce that can only be modern day US politics. I feel sorry for not only the American people, but anyone who has to bear the brunt of this horror and it is horror. Oh, the horror.
Sorry, raise the minimum wage. I think it was supposed to be 9 dollars 50 or something around that pitiful rate. You can't live on that. Just shocking really.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
Well..... there IS this:
US election: could Barack Obama fall victim to the Redskins Rule? - Telegraph
Damn Panthers!
:thinking2:
Virginia polls close at 7pn EST or midnight my time. The networks will call it based on exit polls a minute or two afterwards. If the networks call it for the Kenyan it's all over, if he wins there he's definitely won. The only thing thing that would stop it would be the GOP demanding a recount in a few states which could end up a big mess as most of the swing states have GOP governors.