Romney vs. BO - Saddo's kids race mongering thread

[VictorCharlie]

I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.

[Youngblood]

I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.

Yea, he's taking a lot of flack this week from the right ( I believe its based in fear tbh or just plain rhetoric), but for the most part there is no partisan bias in his model. It could very well fall apart on election night and we won't know until then. But that would pretty much be the end for him, and it would have been the dumbest thing ever for him to slant or bias his numbers.

edit to add: that basically, for it to be wrong, it would mean that all the polling firms are wrong, near every single one of them. his corrections in the weighting for bias is tended to be conservative in comparison to others. But hey, this is election time, so who knows, right? So we getting drunk Tuesday?

[VictorCharlie]

I saw this on his twitter today.

"We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1."

Seems a bit CYA to me. Oh and the Redskins lost so Romney is a shoe in.

[Youngblood]

There is no way around it, it is a close race. Those high numbers I'm using are just probability. And that shit happens. I've played enough poker to know I've had hands many times where I was an 80 or even 98 % favorite, to see the wrong card come next and money go the other direction.

[Spicoli]

Obama will win the election. Blame Sandy, or blame Romney for having all the grab of a pile of dry leafs. Honestly I am totally who gives a shate about either. Obama is a late night infomercial front man who you can see right through...I don't know a 'Mitt'. Though I do get the impression that he is ten times brighter than his vp running mate. This whole particular campaign and process feels like a short cut for some reason. Romney is a walking contradiction but, he is 'new'. Should he win I wouldn't mind frankly but I think he'll be an empty suit and won't be able to garner support from the hard right and certainly not the left to make strides and needed progress.

[Gandalf]

I think Obama will edge it, but the entire thing is just a massive pantomime horse.

On this side you have Obama who should have been impeached for Libya, who expanded the war on Afghanistan, failed to introduce the minimum wage, chickened out on single payer healthcare, assasinates people on sovereign soil, kills innocent people weekly in drone attacks, failed to reform the financial sector or hold those responsible to account, failed to investigate war criminals Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, who failed to hold its client state Israel to account for murder and land theft, who can detain Bradley Manning indefinitely, who didn't close Guantanamo, who didn't cut the deficit, who can now kill any US citizen or person globally on the suspicion of being a 'terrorist'. The man is criminal and needs to be held to account and voting him back in is not holding him to account.

It is a massively sad indictment that someone with a record like that above is potentially the least bad option. Going on what Romney has been saying, Romney is an economic liability, a potential hand grenade on world affairs, an environmental psychopath. This is a man who believes in golden tablets sent from angels and that Jesus visited the native Americans. It is outright insanity.

This is no election, it is pure theatre and it sickens me that this is what it boils down to. The corruption, the slime, the dishonesty, the farce that can only be modern day US politics. I feel sorry for not only the American people, but anyone who has to bear the brunt of this horror and it is horror. Oh, the horror.

[Gandalf]

Sorry, raise the minimum wage. I think it was supposed to be 9 dollars 50 or something around that pitiful rate. You can't live on that. Just shocking really.

[Spicoli]

Obama will win the election. Blame Sandy, or blame Romney for having all the grab of a pile of dry leafs. Honestly I am totally who gives a shate about either. Obama is a late night infomercial front man who you can see right through...I don't know a 'Mitt'. Though I do get the impression that he is ten times brighter than his vp running mate. This whole particular campaign and process feels like a short cut for some reason. Romney is a walking contradiction but, he is 'new'. Should he win I wouldn't mind frankly but I think he'll be an empty suit and won't be able to garner support from the hard right and certainly not the left to make strides and needed progress.

Could be @Spicoli, but do you really believe the magic mulatto will get the Republicans and others to work with him?
What's going to be BO's excuse for the economy tanking for the next four years, the deficit doubling or tripling, the unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, and gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark? I guess BO can always blame it on Bush and the Republicans, that and being the 1st "black" is how he got elected the 1st time.
It's time some of you misguided idiots who voted for BO in 2008 got your heads out of your ass and admit that this smiling clown knows fuck all about leading this country back to prominence and prosperity.

No, of course not. The last 4 have shown us that. Frankly I think we're tanked either way in the short term and to think an unknown quantity who cannot seem to make up my mind will have instant result for better is pie in the sky. He is new and some take hope from him but I don't know if simply "not being Obama" is enough. I think the American public in general is so fed the fuck up with what has become the human condition and seeing BOTH of these clowns play us for sucker newlyweds shopping for the first family car that the frustration is palpable. Its a two party system in a country that just wants 'different'. People voted for Obama with the same mindset I think...far from him just 'being black' Come on man. They took an honorable man in McCain who was already in deep and turned him into Driving Miss Daisy to that walking catch phrase and well intended distraction called Palin. Thats my opinion. Also eight yrs of war yells volumes. There are alot of kool aid drinkers who would lick his boot...or glass slipper... no matter what and thats just as shameful as it is unfortunate but there is no answer in a D or an R and its no so much an option as it is an empty delima. Not to me, not now.

[Mars_ax]

Obama will win the election. Blame Sandy, or blame Romney for having all the grab of a pile of dry leafs. Honestly I am totally who gives a shate about either. Obama is a late night infomercial front man who you can see right through...I don't know a 'Mitt'. Though I do get the impression that he is ten times brighter than his vp running mate. This whole particular campaign and process feels like a short cut for some reason. Romney is a walking contradiction but, he is 'new'. Should he win I wouldn't mind frankly but I think he'll be an empty suit and won't be able to garner support from the hard right and certainly not the left to make strides and needed progress.

Could be @Spicoli, but do you really believe the magic mulatto will get the Republicans and others to work with him?
What's going to be BO's excuse for the economy tanking for the next four years, the deficit doubling or tripling, the unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, and gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark? I guess BO can always blame it on Bush and the Republicans, that and being the 1st "black" is how he got elected the 1st time.
It's time some of you misguided idiots who voted for BO in 2008 got your heads out of your ass and admit that this smiling clown knows fuck all about leading this country back to prominence and prosperity.

No, of course not. The last 4 have shown us that. Frankly I think we're tanked either way in the short term and to think an unknown quantity who cannot seem to make up my mind will have instant result for better is pie in the sky. He is new and some take hope from him but I don't know if simply "not being Obama" is enough. I think the American public in general is so fed the fuck up with what has become the human condition and seeing BOTH of these clowns play us for sucker newlyweds shopping for the first family car that the frustration is palpable. Its a two party system in a country that just wants 'different'. People voted for Obama with the same mindset I think...far from him just 'being black' Come on man. They took an honorable man in McCain who was already in deep and turned him into Driving Miss Daisy to that walking catch phrase and well intended distraction called Palin. Thats my opinion. Also eight yrs of war yells volumes. There are alot of kool aid drinkers who would lick his boot...or glass slipper... no matter what and thats just as shameful as it is unfortunate but there is no answer in a D or an R and its no so much an option as it is an empty delima. Not to me, not now.

McCain's timing was horrible, as was his choice of a running mate, that coupled along with the republicans being blamed for the deficit, and economy going to shit, left the door cracked just enough for BO to slip in. Overall i'd say BO has done an amazing job considering that the pretentious little smiling clown hasn't got a clue about WTF he's doing.