Please either delete or move this hijacked thread to "let's get it on"
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Please either delete or move this hijacked thread to "let's get it on"
I'm hoping Gary Johnson gets at least 5% of the popular vote which is a long shot but hopefully we get a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The chaos will be epic.
Obama will win, with at least 300 of the electorate. He is just now pulling ahead in the popular vote in most of the best aggregates. But the election isn't decided by popular vote, it is decided state to state and tallied with the electoral college. And here is where Romney runs into deep trouble. He is behind in nearly every swing state with Obama already leading, and decisively. Most of the again, aggregates, have Romney's chances of winning the electoral at anywhere from 2-20%.
The two most successful firms in statistical analysis from the 08 election currently have Obama at a 86.5% and 97 % probability of a win.
But I agree with VC, a tie would be hilarious.
That's funny Charlie, but hopefully we'll have a clear-cut winner before I hit the sack at 11:00 PM Tuesday night. :-\Quote:
Originally Posted by VictorCharlie
I agree, Romney winning would be a big upset, and the electoral college dictates who wins. If Romney wins i'm happy, if BO wins, i'll be one of his biggest critics the next 4 for years, as I watch the U.S. spiraling down the proverbial toilet bowl. Either way, i'll do just fine personally. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Youngblood
I'm a little skeptical of Silver and his like. Their means of weighting some polls over others is disconcerting. Pew has the national polls as 3 points for O, Gallup has it 1 point for O and last time I checked Rasmussen I think they had it tied. All three are showing the battleground states also in the 1-3 points range. Obama might pull 300 electoral votes but that would require a lot of the purple states going his way. I think 274-264 is much more reasonable count regardless of winner.
I don't think the economy would really have changed much either way, to be honest. All the magic potion stuff either is spewing towards the economy is just rhetoric for the most part. The US suffered a major recession because of mistakes from the past and is on the mend. The recovery has been slow, but that has been the nature of this recession and it aligns with how everyone who was affected by it in the world community is also recovering. In fact you guys are doing slightly better than most. You guys will be fine.
Just no more stupid wars for a bit, okay?
Yea, he's taking a lot of flack this week from the right ( I believe its based in fear tbh or just plain rhetoric), but for the most part there is no partisan bias in his model. It could very well fall apart on election night and we won't know until then. But that would pretty much be the end for him, and it would have been the dumbest thing ever for him to slant or bias his numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by VictorCharlie
edit to add: that basically, for it to be wrong, it would mean that all the polling firms are wrong, near every single one of them. his corrections in the weighting for bias is tended to be conservative in comparison to others. But hey, this is election time, so who knows, right? So we getting drunk Tuesday? :)
I saw this on his twitter today.
"We have Obama as ~80% likely to win Electoral College if popular vote is a tie. 98% if it's O+1. 30% if it's R+1."
Seems a bit CYA to me. Oh and the Redskins lost so Romney is a shoe in.
There is no way around it, it is a close race. Those high numbers I'm using are just probability. And that shit happens. I've played enough poker to know I've had hands many times where I was an 80 or even 98 % favorite, to see the wrong card come next and money go the other direction.
Obama will win the election. Blame Sandy, or blame Romney for having all the grab of a pile of dry leafs. Honestly I am totally who gives a shate about either. Obama is a late night infomercial front man who you can see right through...I don't know a 'Mitt'. Though I do get the impression that he is ten times brighter than his vp running mate. This whole particular campaign and process feels like a short cut for some reason. Romney is a walking contradiction but, he is 'new'. Should he win I wouldn't mind frankly but I think he'll be an empty suit and won't be able to garner support from the hard right and certainly not the left to make strides and needed progress.
I think Obama will edge it, but the entire thing is just a massive pantomime horse.
On this side you have Obama who should have been impeached for Libya, who expanded the war on Afghanistan, failed to introduce the minimum wage, chickened out on single payer healthcare, assasinates people on sovereign soil, kills innocent people weekly in drone attacks, failed to reform the financial sector or hold those responsible to account, failed to investigate war criminals Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, who failed to hold its client state Israel to account for murder and land theft, who can detain Bradley Manning indefinitely, who didn't close Guantanamo, who didn't cut the deficit, who can now kill any US citizen or person globally on the suspicion of being a 'terrorist'. The man is criminal and needs to be held to account and voting him back in is not holding him to account.
It is a massively sad indictment that someone with a record like that above is potentially the least bad option. Going on what Romney has been saying, Romney is an economic liability, a potential hand grenade on world affairs, an environmental psychopath. This is a man who believes in golden tablets sent from angels and that Jesus visited the native Americans. It is outright insanity.
This is no election, it is pure theatre and it sickens me that this is what it boils down to. The corruption, the slime, the dishonesty, the farce that can only be modern day US politics. I feel sorry for not only the American people, but anyone who has to bear the brunt of this horror and it is horror. Oh, the horror.
Sorry, raise the minimum wage. I think it was supposed to be 9 dollars 50 or something around that pitiful rate. You can't live on that. Just shocking really.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
Well..... there IS this:
US election: could Barack Obama fall victim to the Redskins Rule? - Telegraph
Damn Panthers!
:thinking2:
Virginia polls close at 7pn EST or midnight my time. The networks will call it based on exit polls a minute or two afterwards. If the networks call it for the Kenyan it's all over, if he wins there he's definitely won. The only thing thing that would stop it would be the GOP demanding a recount in a few states which could end up a big mess as most of the swing states have GOP governors.
I'm going to go NObama 303 Romney 235. I may change that later if this guy changes his mind :
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history
Yea kirkland. When I mentioned the 2 aggregate firms most successful in the 08 election, the one other than 538( that is getting so much of the ink), that I was referring to is Dr. Sam Wang. He was the only one to do a better job than Nate in 08. His biggest criticism of the 538 model is it's potential conservatism.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing
Redskins Rule - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I'm going to go ahead and call this election, Romney wins. DOWN GOES BARRY! DOWN GOES BARRY!
It sure will be nice to have an ADULT in the White House again.
haha Lyle, anything is possible, that much is sure. Speaking of sure, be sure to tune in with a bottle of your finest tomorrow night and we'll all get sloppy together.
I'm going to get great enjoyment over watching the people at MSNBC cry and bellyache about what an unfair election this is and how the Republicans cheat and how people just don't understand Barack Obama.Quote:
Originally Posted by Youngblood
I want Chris Matthews to cry, I want him to be put on suicide watch after Romney wins in a landslide fashion.
So after realizing that the pres of USA politically doesn't mean shizz: what candidate got the better style or outfit? Please be honest without being biased. ;D
They're politicians and therefore dress in a rather bland manner. Romney has the style disadvantage of being Mormon but old Barry looks out of place in a suit.Quote:
Originally Posted by GOAT
Why will Mitt Romney win??? Romney winning independents 59%-35% | WashingtonExaminer.com
.....if you're winning the Independents by that much, you're going to win and it's not going to be close
Now Lyle, this will be my last (possibly first?) ever attempt to sway your vote. Please, think of the chil, er...puppies.
http://www.facebook.com/DogsAgainstRomney
In their heart of hearts, the puppies know best. Look deep into your heart before you step into the booth. It is all that I ask.
http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4...puppybymub.jpg
No, of course not. The last 4 have shown us that. Frankly I think we're tanked either way in the short term and to think an unknown quantity who cannot seem to make up my mind will have instant result for better is pie in the sky. He is new and some take hope from him but I don't know if simply "not being Obama" is enough. I think the American public in general is so fed the fuck up with what has become the human condition and seeing BOTH of these clowns play us for sucker newlyweds shopping for the first family car that the frustration is palpable. Its a two party system in a country that just wants 'different'. People voted for Obama with the same mindset I think...far from him just 'being black' Come on man. They took an honorable man in McCain who was already in deep and turned him into Driving Miss Daisy to that walking catch phrase and well intended distraction called Palin. Thats my opinion. Also eight yrs of war yells volumes. There are alot of kool aid drinkers who would lick his boot...or glass slipper... no matter what and thats just as shameful as it is unfortunate but there is no answer in a D or an R and its no so much an option as it is an empty delima. Not to me, not now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_axCould be @Spicoli, but do you really believe the magic mulatto will get the Republicans and others to work with him?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spicoli
What's going to be BO's excuse for the economy tanking for the next four years, the deficit doubling or tripling, the unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, and gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark? I guess BO can always blame it on Bush and the Republicans, that and being the 1st "black" is how he got elected the 1st time.
It's time some of you misguided idiots who voted for BO in 2008 got your heads out of your ass and admit that this smiling clown knows fuck all about leading this country back to prominence and prosperity.
McCain's timing was horrible, as was his choice of a running mate, that coupled along with the republicans being blamed for the deficit, and economy going to shit, left the door cracked just enough for BO to slip in. Overall i'd say BO has done an amazing job considering that the pretentious little smiling clown hasn't got a clue about WTF he's doing. :-XQuote:
Originally Posted by SpicoliNo, of course not. The last 4 have shown us that. Frankly I think we're tanked either way in the short term and to think an unknown quantity who cannot seem to make up my mind will have instant result for better is pie in the sky. He is new and some take hope from him but I don't know if simply "not being Obama" is enough. I think the American public in general is so fed the fuck up with what has become the human condition and seeing BOTH of these clowns play us for sucker newlyweds shopping for the first family car that the frustration is palpable. Its a two party system in a country that just wants 'different'. People voted for Obama with the same mindset I think...far from him just 'being black' Come on man. They took an honorable man in McCain who was already in deep and turned him into Driving Miss Daisy to that walking catch phrase and well intended distraction called Palin. Thats my opinion. Also eight yrs of war yells volumes. There are alot of kool aid drinkers who would lick his boot...or glass slipper... no matter what and thats just as shameful as it is unfortunate but there is no answer in a D or an R and its no so much an option as it is an empty delima. Not to me, not now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_axCould be @Spicoli, but do you really believe the magic mulatto will get the Republicans and others to work with him?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spicoli
What's going to be BO's excuse for the economy tanking for the next four years, the deficit doubling or tripling, the unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, and gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark? I guess BO can always blame it on Bush and the Republicans, that and being the 1st "black" is how he got elected the 1st time.
It's time some of you misguided idiots who voted for BO in 2008 got your heads out of your ass and admit that this smiling clown knows fuck all about leading this country back to prominence and prosperity.
And they're off! Everybody get their predictions in as to who is going to win the Mormon-Muslim deathmatch.
He got the 2004 election result exactly right. He was one electoral vote out in 2008. He's currently predicting 312-226 to the Kenyan. I'm going with 303 or 294.Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungbloodYea kirkland. When I mentioned the 2 aggregate firms most successful in the 08 election, the one other than 538( that is getting so much of the ink), that I was referring to is Dr. Sam Wang. He was the only one to do a better job than Nate in 08. His biggest criticism of the 538 model is it's potential conservatism.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland Laing
Are you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
Pssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
I'm only here for the epic butthurt. So far, not disappointed.
....ummm it was all Mitt Romney's fault his negative campaign ads hurt the economy, yeah. Oh and vote for REVENGE because why the hell not???Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_axShould he get elected to another term tonight, I wonder what BO's excuse will be for the next 4 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by El KabongPssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
Let me guess, the republicans won't work with me? Is it because, you're unfit to lead, and don't know WTF you're doing?
Here's what you can be expected if the magic mulatto is re-elected: no leadership, a weakened military, more welfare, the economy tanking, the deficit doubling or tripling, an unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark and the start of another depression.
What kind of fucking leader wants you to vote for revenge?!?!?! Barack Obama is not worthy of his office, he wasn't worthy in 2008 and he's sure as fuck not worthy now.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/obama.3cdn...._h81mvyju7.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by El KabongPssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
The economy was losing 800 000 jobs a month when Obama took office.
Who tripled the national debt, Reagan or Obama? Who doubled it, Bush the Lesser or Obama? Where was the Dow Jones index when Obama took office and where is it now? How could Obama possibly fuck the economy up worse than the previous guy did? Can you provide any actual facts and evidence to base any of these claims on?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_axShould he get elected to another term tonight, I wonder what BO's excuse will be for the next 4 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by El KabongPssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
Let me guess, the republicans won't work with me? Is it because, you're unfit to lead, and don't know WTF you're doing?
Here's what you can be expected if the magic mulatto is re-elected: no leadership, a weakened military, more welfare, the economy tanking, the deficit doubling or tripling, an unemployment rate going above 10-12 percent, the stock market crashing, gas prices hitting the $7.00 mark and the start of another depression.
And now the unemployment is worse.... WORSEQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland Lainghttps://s3.amazonaws.com/obama.3cdn...._h81mvyju7.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by El KabongPssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
The economy was losing 800 000 jobs a month when Obama took office.
It's no skin off my ass, if BO gets re-elected and/or Romney loses, but feel free to rub it in all you like. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Youngblood
To tell you the truth, if the majority of Americans want an unqualified to lead clown like BO as their "president", I could care less. I just wanna be there to hear the "epic" excuses when the once great America finishes going down the toilet, and be able to say: "we tried to tell you, but you wouldn't listen."
When you sleep with dogs, you wake up with fleas, and in BO's case, you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.
Putting it in BLOCK CAPS doesn't alter the pointlessness of this statement. Bear in mind America just went through the biggest economic meltdown since the 1930s Depression. What's the measuring stick for a successful recovery from the 2008 meltdown? Are you going to compare American unemployment to other countries? How about Europe or Asia? I'll let you come into contact with some facts on this one and then you can tell us what you find.Quote:
Originally Posted by El KabongAnd now the unemployment is worse.... WORSEQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland Lainghttps://s3.amazonaws.com/obama.3cdn...._h81mvyju7.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by El KabongPssst hey buddy, unemployment is higher now than when Obama took office......just thought you should knowQuote:
Originally Posted by Kirkland LaingAre you concerned that over the next four years Obama could destroy the economy to the extent that it gets as bad as it was when he took office?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_ax
The economy was losing 800 000 jobs a month when Obama took office.
What is Obama going to do in the next four years to make things as bad as they were when he took over? What do you think he should do over the next four years to make things better?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mars_axIt's no skin off my ass, if BO gets re-elected and/or Romney loses, but feel free to rub it in all you like. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by Youngblood
To tell you the truth, if the majority of Americans want an unqualified to lead clown like BO as their "president", I could care less. I just wanna be there to hear the "epic" excuses when the once great America finishes going down the toilet, and be able to say: "we tried to tell you, but you wouldn't listen."
When you sleep with dogs, you wake up with fleas, and in BO's case, you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.
Kirk,
Why don't you have just make succinct declarative post instead socratically questioning us to death?
If we all juast make declarative posts then there's no actual interaction, is there? You can argue that up is down and I can say that down is down and that's that, but surely it's better for me to ask you why you think up is down? Have a little conversation instead of just posting statements?Quote:
Originally Posted by VictorCharlie