To be honest, I cannot see why Kessler is being written off here.

The only real advantage Carl has is fighting in his home country.

Mikkel has anhialated 3 good opponents since his fight with Carl, showing maybe even an improvement in power.

Carl has had a rougher schedule but that could be to his detriment. He is older and could come in tired like Benn did against Malinga. He may have burnt himself out in the gym.