I think any fighter COULD have beaten Floyd, if they caught him on the right night with the right punch in the right place. I also agree that Castillo won the first fight and was robbed of the decision. That being said, I don't think I make ANYONE a favorite over Floyd from 147 and down. I give prime versions of Mosely, Oscar, Sweet Pea Whitaker, and Julio Ceasar Chavez even money against him, and make prime Kostya and Cotto slight underdogs.