Could have some logic on that one but it’s not a given

Bond yields are low which will send more people to equities

In summary, high P/E ratios in a vacuum are not a doomsday predictor, but they still matter. The unique characteristics of the current environment, however, likely should change the way we look at the valuation metric for now.

Certain macro factors at play, such as historically low interest rates, are one difference. The relative attractiveness of stocks given their higher dividend yield compared to bonds, as a result of very loose monetary policy, has pushed P/Es higher. Couple this with subdued inflationary pressures, and this could carry on for some time still.

From a historical perspective, the trailing P/E ratio is still just under one standard deviation from its mean going back over the past 40 years, to 1977. The metric has been higher than its current value approximately 20% of the time since 1977. Similarly, the forward P/E is also just below its one standard deviation point, with data since 1990. The forward metric has been higher than its current value approximately 17% of the time. So although the metrics are near their highest levels, they have been higher.

What the historical data does clearly show, however, is that higher current valuation levels do tend to correspond with low future financial returns. Analyzing the data since October 1977 shows that, on average, P/E ratios in the range of 20-25 generally correspond with a subsequent 12-month return of ~5.7%; echoing sentiment by Vanguard recently, which told investors to expect no better than 4 percent to 6 percent returns from stocks in the next five years.

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